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Arronches Benfica vs Fatima - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

65' Event
Guilherme Norte

AI Match Summary

Arronches Benfica in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arronches Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Arronches Benfica
15%
Draws
51%
Fatima
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Arronches Benfica lately — more wins on the board than Fatima.
  • Model gives Fatima a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 19%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 22%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arronches Benfica Fatima
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.1 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.7 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Arronches Benfica
1:0
Dec 15, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Arronches Benfica vs Fatima
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arronches Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Guilherme Norte
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Fatima Compare

Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arronches Benfica 24 / 100
Fatima 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arronches Benfica Fatima

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arronches Benfica found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Fatima's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.00 goals when they meet.

Arronches Benfica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Fatima
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arronches Benfica

(Home)
13 Apr
Arronches Benfica
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
06 Apr
Fatima
1 : 0
Arronches Benfica
29 Mar
Arronches Benfica
2 : 1
Pero Pinheiro
16 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 0
Arronches Benfica
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 6

Fatima

(Away)
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)