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Arronches Benfica vs Os Marialvas

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Goncalves Rosario M. M.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 game between Arronches Benfica and Os Marialvas finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arronches Benfica.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Arronches Benfica
44%
Draws
20%
Os Marialvas
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Arronches Benfica come out ahead of Os Marialvas on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Arronches Benfica Clean Sheet 22%
Os Marialvas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arronches Benfica Os Marialvas
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 0 1
Goals Conceded 0 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 26, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Arronches Benfica vs Os Marialvas
1:0
Sep 1, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Os Marialvas vs Arronches Benfica
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arronches Benfica Compare

Top Goalscorer Goncalves Rosario M. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Os Marialvas Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arronches Benfica 37 / 100
Os Marialvas 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arronches Benfica Os Marialvas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick OS Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arronches Benfica scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Os Marialvas has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Arronches Benfica stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Os Marialvas
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.25
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Arronches Benfica

(Home)
13 Apr
Arronches Benfica
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
06 Apr
Fatima
1 : 0
Arronches Benfica
29 Mar
Arronches Benfica
2 : 1
Pero Pinheiro
16 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 0
Arronches Benfica
09 Mar
Arronches Benfica
1 : 0
Sertanense
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Os Marialvas

(Away)
18 Apr
Lajense
1 : 0
Os Marialvas
12 Apr
Os Marialvas
0 : 0
Naval 1893
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Os Marialvas
1 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
22 Mar
Os Marialvas
2 : 0
Fatima
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1O Elvas CAD26205141:1065
2Fatima26147530:1249
3Arronches Benfica26139427:1748
4GD Peniche26109731:2339
5Os Marialvas26910730:2837
6Mortagua FC26813523:2137
7Marinhense2699824:2136
8Alverca B2698928:2535
9SB Castelo Branco26810823:2134
10SC Pombal26881029:3432
11Uniao de Coimbra26671326:4425
12Sertanense26491323:3321
13Alcains26461617:3618
14Pero Pinheiro26261812:3912
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)