Sport Picks
Match Events
44'
44'
Borja M.
73'
73'
Canero A.
(Penalty)
76'
76'
Giraldo A.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 game between Arroyo and Castuera finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Castuera
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Castuera come out ahead of Arroyo on wins alone.
- Castuera are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 10%
Castuera Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arroyo | Castuera |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 20 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.13 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 30, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Castuera
2:2
Nov 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Arroyo
2:2
Jan 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Castuera
0:1
Sep 9, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Castuera vs Arroyo
2:2
May 4, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Castuera
3:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arroyo Compare
Top Goalscorer Borja M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Giraldo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Castuera Compare
Top Goalscorer Bueno A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arroyo 10 / 100
Castuera 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arroyo Castuera
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castuera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Castuera conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 3.80 goals.
Castuera lost 4 of their last 5 games.
Arroyo's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Arroyo VS Castuera
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Arroyo
(Home) 11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2 CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0 Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4 SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0 Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 6
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2 CD Calamonte
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4 SP Villafranca
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2 CD Diocesano
30 Mar
Arroyo
2 : 2 Castuera
16 Mar
Arroyo
1 : 2 Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 3
Castuera
(Away) 13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
05 Sept
Castuera
5 : 0 Gevora
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
11 May
CD Badajoz
1 : 0 Castuera
04 May
Castuera
1 : 2 CF Trujillo
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0 Castuera
31 Aug
Villanovense
3 : 0 Castuera
11 May
CD Badajoz
1 : 0 Castuera
27 Apr
Pueblonuevo
1 : 2 Castuera
11 Apr
CD Extremadura
2 : 0 Castuera
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 73:22 | 75 |
| 2 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 65:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Jaraiz | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 65:40 | 69 |
| 4 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:20 | 63 |
| 6 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58:38 | 58 |
| 7 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 31:31 | 54 |
| 8 | Jerez CF | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 50:48 | 51 |
| 9 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 55:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Moralo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 52:50 | 46 |
| 11 | Montijo | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:34 | 45 |
| 12 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42:71 | 36 |
| 13 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 14 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 35:56 | 32 |
| 15 | Castuera | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 46:64 | 29 |
| 16 | CF Trujillo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 32:63 | 28 |
| 17 | Arroyo | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32:70 | 22 |
| 18 | Olivenza FC | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 26:79 | 17 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
