Sport Picks
Arroyo vs SP Villafranca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Spain
Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 
Match Events
37'
37'
Rivero D.
48'
48'
Hernandez J. P.
80'
80'
Ouattara A.
AI Match Summary
The Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 game between Arroyo and SP Villafranca finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SP Villafranca.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
16%
20%
64%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: SP Villafranca
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- SP Villafranca carry the better recent record into this one.
- SP Villafranca are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 20%
SP Villafranca Clean Sheet 14%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arroyo | SP Villafranca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 35 | 32 |
| Wins | 7 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 6 |
| Losses | 20 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.86 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs SP Villafranca
1:4
Dec 14, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Arroyo
4:0
Feb 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs SP Villafranca
0:0
Oct 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
SP Villafranca vs Arroyo
1:2
Apr 16, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs SP Villafranca
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arroyo Compare
Top Goalscorer Hernandez J. P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55
SP Villafranca Compare
Top Goalscorer Ouattara A.
2 Goals Assists Leader Rivero D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.62
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arroyo 12 / 100
SP Villafranca 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arroyo SP Villafranca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SP Villafranca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arroyo scored in 60% of their last 35 games.
SP Villafranca has conceded goals in 75% of their last 32 outings.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
SP Villafranca's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
- VS SP Villafranca
0 Goals Scored 1.13
0 Goals Conceded 1
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Arroyo
(Home) 11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2 CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0 Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4 SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0 Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2 CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 7
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2 CD Calamonte
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4 SP Villafranca
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2 CD Diocesano
30 Mar
Arroyo
2 : 2 Castuera
16 Mar
Arroyo
1 : 2 Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 4
SP Villafranca
(Away) 27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1 SP Villafranca
20 Sept
SP Villafranca
0 : 1 Villanovense
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2 SP Villafranca
06 Sept
SP Villafranca
1 : 4 CD Azuaga
08 Aug
SP Villafranca
3 : 3 CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 7
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1 SP Villafranca
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2 SP Villafranca
10 May
CD Diocesano
4 : 4 SP Villafranca
19 Apr
Santa Amalia
0 : 2 SP Villafranca
03 Apr
Gevora
1 : 3 SP Villafranca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Extremadura | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 73:22 | 75 |
| 2 | CD Azuaga | 34 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 65:28 | 71 |
| 3 | Jaraiz | 34 | 21 | 6 | 7 | 65:40 | 69 |
| 4 | AD Llerenense | 34 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 58:28 | 68 |
| 5 | CD Badajoz | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 54:20 | 63 |
| 6 | CD Diocesano | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 58:38 | 58 |
| 7 | Santa Amalia | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 31:31 | 54 |
| 8 | Jerez CF | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 50:48 | 51 |
| 9 | SP Villafranca | 34 | 14 | 5 | 15 | 55:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Moralo | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 52:50 | 46 |
| 11 | Montijo | 34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 35:34 | 45 |
| 12 | Pueblonuevo | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42:71 | 36 |
| 13 | CD Calamonte | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 14 | Puebla de la Calzada | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 35:56 | 32 |
| 15 | Castuera | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 46:64 | 29 |
| 16 | CF Trujillo | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 32:63 | 28 |
| 17 | Arroyo | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 32:70 | 22 |
| 18 | Olivenza FC | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 26:79 | 17 |
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)
