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Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk

Belarus Belarus

Vysshaya Liga Haradski Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Diabate B.
Assist: Kontsevoy A.
20'
Sub
Gromyko V. In: Lisakovich R.
Out: Gromyko V.
25' Event
Glushkov N.
Assist: Balanovich S.

AI Match Summary

ML Vitebsk in this Vysshaya Liga matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored ML Vitebsk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
28%
Draws
22%
ML Vitebsk
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk haven't matched ML Vitebsk's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Arsenal Dzerzhinsk a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Vysshaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Clean Sheet 10%
ML Vitebsk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Dzerzhinsk ML Vitebsk
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 9 18
Draws 6 4
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.13 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk
0:3
Nov 15, 2025 Club Friendly
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0:0
Aug 10, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk
0:4
Mar 29, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
ML Vitebsk vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
2:2
Nov 11, 2023 Pershaya Liga
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs ML Vitebsk
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

ML Vitebsk Compare

Top Goalscorer Diabate B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Glushkov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 47 / 100
ML Vitebsk 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk ML Vitebsk

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk scored in 62% of their last 26 outings.

ML Vitebsk has conceded goals in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk VS ML Vitebsk
1.13 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Din. Minsk14103126:1233
2ML Vitebsk1494130:1331
3Isloch Minsk1484224:1028
4FC Gomel1575321:1326
5Dynamo Brest1573524:1524
6Zhodino1565423:1323
7FC Minsk1564521:2022
8Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1456318:1821
9Neman1563616:1521
10Vitebsk1445513:1617
11FK Baranovici1544715:2616
12Slavia Mozyr1536614:2215
13Dnepr Mogilev1525812:2211
14Belshina1432913:2611
15BATE141679:179
16Naftan14131010:316