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Arsenal Tula vs Lokomotiv Moscow

Russia Russia

Russian Cup 2025/2026 Stadion Arsenal
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Sub
Pinyaev S. In: Vera L.
Out: Pinyaev S.
27'
Botaka-Yoboma E.
32' Event
Morozov E.
Assist: Batrakov A.

AI Match Summary

The Russian Cup 2025/2026 game between Arsenal Tula and Lokomotiv Moscow finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lokomotiv Moscow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Arsenal Tula
22%
Draws
60%
Lokomotiv Moscow
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Lokomotiv Moscow

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lokomotiv Moscow come out ahead of Arsenal Tula on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lokomotiv Moscow's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Cup games in Russian Cup 2025/2026 usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Lokomotiv Moscow have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 10%
Lokomotiv Moscow Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal Tula Lokomotiv Moscow
Matches Played 25 28
Wins 6 15
Draws 8 7
Losses 11 6
Goals Scored 1.13 2.25
Goals Conceded 1.75 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2026 Russian Cup
Arsenal Tula vs Lokomotiv Moscow
1:2
Jun 26, 2024 Club Friendly
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
2:1
Nov 29, 2021 Premier League
Arsenal Tula vs Lokomotiv Moscow
3:1
Jul 24, 2021 Premier League
Lokomotiv Moscow vs Arsenal Tula
3:1
Mar 8, 2021 Premier League
Arsenal Tula vs Lokomotiv Moscow
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal Tula Compare

Top Goalscorer Bolshakov K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lokomotiv Moscow Compare

Top Goalscorer Morozov E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Karpukas A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal Tula 18 / 100
Lokomotiv Moscow 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal Tula Lokomotiv Moscow

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Arsenal Tula found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (25 games).

Solid form: Arsenal Tula remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Lokomotiv Moscow's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 28 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal Tula VS Lokomotiv Moscow
1.13 Goals Scored 2.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Torpedo Moscow0
Baltika2
TBD-
Zenit St Petersburg-
Neftekhimik1
FK Rostov3
TBD-
Dynamo Makhachkala-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Kamaz1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
TBD-
Orenburg-
Arsenal Tula1
Rubin Kazan0
TBD-
Lokomotiv Moscow-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
1/8-finals
Baltika0
Zenit St Petersburg1
FK Rostov0
Dynamo Makhachkala2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
Orenburg0
Arsenal Tula1
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Quarter-finals
Zenit St Petersburg1
Dynamo Makhachkala0
TBD-
Spartak Moscow-
Krylya Sovetov Samara3
Lokomotiv Moscow2
TBD-
CSKA Moscow-
Semi-finals
Zenit St Petersburg0
Spartak Moscow1
Krylya Sovetov Samara2
CSKA Moscow5
Final
Spartak Moscow1
CSKA Moscow0