Sport Picks
Arsenal Tula vs S. Kostroma - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Russia
FNL Stadion Arsenal, Tula 
Match Events
6'
6'
Melekestsev T.
23'
23'
Biryukov A.
30'
30'
Plotnikov D.
AI Match Summary
Arsenal Tula in this FNL matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Arsenal Tula.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
21%
15%
64%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: S. Kostroma
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
64%
/ High Confidence
- Arsenal Tula haven't matched S. Kostroma's recent run of results.
- Model gives S. Kostroma a 64% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Arsenal Tula Clean Sheet 17%
S. Kostroma Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arsenal Tula | S. Kostroma |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 6 | 11 |
| Draws | 11 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.1 | 1.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.67 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 9, 2026 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs S. Kostroma
3:2
Jun 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Arsenal Tula vs S. Kostroma
1:1
Apr 25, 2026 FNL
S. Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 FNL
Arsenal Tula vs S. Kostroma
1:2
Oct 31, 2006 FNL 2 - Group 2
S. Kostroma vs Arsenal Tula
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arsenal Tula Compare
Top Goalscorer Melekestsev T.
2 Goals Assists Leader Biryukov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
S. Kostroma Compare
Top Goalscorer Nikiforenko O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arsenal Tula 23 / 100
S. Kostroma 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arsenal Tula S. Kostroma
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick S. Kostroma Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arsenal Tula found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
S. Kostroma let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Arsenal Tula went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Arsenal Tula VS S. Kostroma
0.88 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Arsenal Tula
(Home) 04 Oct
CSKA Moscow
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
26 Sept
Lokomotiv Moscow
0 : 2 Arsenal Tula
16 Sept
Yenisey
3 : 1 Arsenal Tula
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 SKA Khabarovsk
08 Sept
Tekstilshtik
1 : 0 Arsenal Tula
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 SKA Khabarovsk
29 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 2 Ural
20 Aug
Arsenal Tula
2 : 1 R. Volgograd
02 Aug
Arsenal Tula
1 : 0 Torpedo Moscow
19 Jul
Arsenal Tula
0 : 1 Neftekhimik
Page 1 of 3
S. Kostroma
(Away) 26 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 2 Ural
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
14 Sept
S. Kostroma
1 : 0 Neftekhimik
08 Sept
Ryazan
0 : 2 S. Kostroma
05 Sept
Chelyabinsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Ulyanovsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
08 Sept
Ryazan
0 : 2 S. Kostroma
05 Sept
Chelyabinsk
0 : 1 S. Kostroma
21 Aug
Torpedo Moscow
3 : 0 S. Kostroma
09 Aug
SKA Khabarovsk
1 : 3 S. Kostroma
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pari Nizhny Novgorod | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 36:14 | 31 |
| 2 | Ural | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 20:6 | 25 |
| 3 | S. Kostroma | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 16:10 | 24 |
| 4 | PFC Sochi | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:14 | 23 |
| 5 | Veles Moscow | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17:16 | 23 |
| 6 | Torpedo Moscow | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 21:9 | 21 |
| 7 | Ufa | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16:13 | 18 |
| 8 | R. Volgograd | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20:14 | 17 |
| 9 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 15:13 | 16 |
| 10 | Yenisey | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 15:20 | 14 |
| 11 | Ulyanovsk | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 12 | Arsenal Tula | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12:22 | 13 |
| 13 | Leningradets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10:20 | 13 |
| 14 | Neftekhimik | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7:15 | 12 |
| 15 | Chelyabinsk | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13:19 | 12 |
| 16 | Kamaz | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11:19 | 9 |
| 17 | Tekstilshtik | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8:19 | 7 |
| 18 | SKA Khabarovsk | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11:23 | 6 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
