Sport Picks
Match Events
34'
34'
Coppola D.
46'
46'
Sub
Kostoulas C. In: Ayari Y.
Out: Kostoulas C.
57'
57'
Nwaneri E.
Assist: Lewis-Skelly M.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-0, with Arsenal advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
34%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Arsenal come out ahead of Brighton on wins alone.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
- Arsenal have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Arsenal, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Arsenal Clean Sheet 11%
Brighton Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Arsenal | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 26 |
| Wins | 19 | 13 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.52 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 4, 2026 Premier League
Brighton vs Arsenal
0:1
Dec 27, 2025 Premier League
Arsenal vs Brighton
2:1
Oct 29, 2025 EFL Cup
Arsenal vs Brighton
2:0
Jan 4, 2025 Premier League
Brighton vs Arsenal
1:1
Aug 31, 2024 Premier League
Arsenal vs Brighton
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Arsenal Compare
Top Goalscorer Nwaneri E.
1 Goals Assists Leader Saka B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Brighton Compare
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Arsenal 35 / 100
Brighton 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Arsenal Brighton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Brighton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arsenal found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).
Arsenal has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Defensive concern: Brighton conceded in 58% of 26 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Arsenal VS Brighton
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Arsenal
(Home) 12 Sept
Sunderland
0 : 2 Arsenal
09 Sept
Napoli
0 : 1 Arsenal
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
31 Aug
Aston Villa
0 : 1 Arsenal
21 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0 Coventry
Page 1 of 6
06 Sept
Arsenal
2 : 1 Chelsea
21 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0 Coventry
16 Aug
Arsenal
3 : 0 Manchester City
12 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 1 Como
09 Aug
Arsenal
2 : 3 Dortmund
Page 1 of 3
Brighton
(Away) 13 Sept
Coventry
0 : 5 Brighton
05 Sept
Brighton
1 : 1 Leeds
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
27 Aug
Brighton
4 : 0 Tromso
23 Aug
Brighton
4 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Coventry
0 : 5 Brighton
30 Aug
Chelsea
4 : 3 Brighton
20 Aug
Tromso
0 : 0 Brighton
17 May
Leeds
1 : 0 Brighton
02 May
Newcastle Utd
3 : 1 Brighton
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/64-finals
Barrow 0
Preston 1
Wrexham 4
Hull City 3
Portsmouth 1
Reading 2
Gillingham 1
AFC Wimbledon 2
Burnley -
TBD -
West Brom 1
Derby 2
Cardiff 2
Swindon 1
Cheltenham 2
Exeter 0
Wolves -
TBD -
TBD -
West Ham -
Everton -
TBD -
Chesterfield 0
Mansfield 2
Tranmere 1
Burton 2
Harrogate 1
Lincoln City 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 2
Sheffield Utd 1
Blackpool 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 3
Fleetwood Town 2
Salford 0
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 1
Colchester 0
TBD -
Brighton -
Liverpool -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Watford 1
Norwich 2
Northampton 0
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Newport 0
Millwall 1
Coventry 1
Luton 0
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Stoke City 1
Walsall 0
Blackburn 1
Bradford City 2
Tottenham -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Accrington 2
Peterborough 1
Middlesbrough 0
Doncaster 4
Wigan 1
Notts County 0
Stockport County 3
Crewe 1
Bromley 2
Ipswich 1
Leyton Orient 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham -
TBD -
Bristol City 2
Milton Keynes Dons 0
Bristol Rovers 0
Cambridge Utd 2
Charlton 3
Stevenage 1
Swansea 3
Crawley Town 1
Plymouth 3
QPR 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland -
TBD -
Huddersfield 3
Leicester 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Manchester City -
Bolton 3
Sheffield Wed 4
TBD -
Leeds -
Grimsby 3
Shrewsbury 1
TBD -
Manchester United -
Bournemouth -
TBD -
TBD -
Brentford -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/32-finals
Preston 2
Wrexham 3
Reading 2
AFC Wimbledon 1
Burnley 2
Derby 1
Cardiff 3
Cheltenham 0
Wolves 3
West Ham 2
Everton 2
Mansfield 0
Burton 0
Lincoln City 1
TBD -
Chelsea -
Birmingham 0
Port Vale 1
TBD -
Arsenal -
Barnsley 2
Rotherham 1
Oxford Utd 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool -
TBD -
Norwich 0
Southampton 3
Crystal Palace -
TBD -
Millwall 2
Coventry 1
Newcastle Utd -
TBD -
Stoke City 0
Bradford City 3
Tottenham -
TBD -
Accrington 0
Doncaster 2
Wigan 1
Stockport County 0
Bromley 1
Wycombe 2
Fulham 2
Bristol City 0
Cambridge Utd 3
Charlton 1
Swansea 2
Plymouth 1
TBD -
Nottingham -
Sunderland 1
Huddersfield 2
TBD -
Manchester City -
Sheffield Wed 2
Leeds 1
Grimsby 3
Manchester United 2
Bournemouth 0
Brentford 2
TBD -
Aston Villa -
1/16-finals
Wrexham 2
Reading 0
Burnley 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 2
Everton 0
Lincoln City 1
Chelsea 2
Port Vale 0
Arsenal 2
Barnsley 0
Brighton 6
Liverpool 2
Southampton 1
Crystal Palace 2
Millwall 1
Newcastle Utd 4
Bradford City 1
Tottenham 3
Doncaster 0
Wigan 0
Wycombe 2
Fulham 1
Cambridge Utd 0
Swansea 3
Nottingham 2
Huddersfield 0
Manchester City 2
Sheffield Wed 0
Grimsby 1
Brentford 2
Aston Villa 1
1/8-finals
Wrexham 1
Cardiff 2
Wolves 3
Chelsea 4
Arsenal 2
Brighton 0
Liverpool 0
Crystal Palace 3
Newcastle Utd 2
Tottenham 0
Wycombe 1
Fulham 2
Swansea 1
Manchester City 3
Grimsby 0
Brentford 5
Quarter-finals
Cardiff 1
Chelsea 3
Arsenal 2
Crystal Palace 1
Newcastle Utd 2
Fulham 1
Manchester City 2
Brentford 0
Semi-finals
Chelsea 2
Arsenal 4
Newcastle Utd 1
Manchester City 5
Final
Arsenal 0
Manchester City 2
