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Arsenal W vs Chelsea W

Europe Europe

Champions League Women 2025/2026 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal W Logo

Arsenal W

3 - 1
FT
Chelsea W Logo

Chelsea W

Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Blackstenius S.
Assist: McCabe K.
28'
James L.
32' Event
Kelly C.
Assist: Mead B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Arsenal W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Arsenal W
30%
Draws
43%
Chelsea W
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chelsea W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Arsenal W haven't matched Chelsea W's recent run of results.
  • Chelsea W are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Chelsea W arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Arsenal W, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Arsenal W Clean Sheet 12%
Chelsea W Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal W Chelsea W
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 21 23
Draws 3 2
Losses 5 4
Goals Scored 2.28 2.41
Goals Conceded 0.66 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 WSL
Chelsea W vs Arsenal W
1:0
Apr 1, 2026 UEFA Champions League Women
Chelsea W vs Arsenal W
1:0
Mar 24, 2026 UEFA Champions League Women
Arsenal W vs Chelsea W
3:1
Jan 24, 2026 WSL
Chelsea W vs Arsenal W
0:2
Nov 8, 2025 WSL
Arsenal W vs Chelsea W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Blackstenius S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kelly C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Chelsea W Compare

Top Goalscorer James L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal W 11 / 100
Chelsea W 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal W Chelsea W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chelsea W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal W scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Arsenal W stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Chelsea W has conceded goals in 45% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal W VS Chelsea W
1.13 Goals Scored 3.13
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
25% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal W

(Home)
27 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 0
Arsenal W
22 Sept
Arsenal W
1 : 0
Koge W
19 Sept
Arsenal W
1 : 1
Manchester United W
13 Sept
Arsenal W
0 : 0
Crystal Palace W
06 Sept
Brighton W
0 : 1
Arsenal W
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Chelsea W

(Away)
27 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 0
Arsenal W
23 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 0
Austria Vienna W
19 Sept
Chelsea W
2 : 0
Birmingham W
13 Sept
Manchester United W
0 : 5
Chelsea W
05 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 1
Aston Villa W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Atl. Madrid W 0
Manchester United W 5
TBD -
Bayern Munich W -
Paris FC W 2
Real Madrid W 5
TBD -
Barcelona W -
Leuven W 1
Arsenal W 7
TBD -
Chelsea W -
Wolfsburg W 4
Juventus W 2
TBD -
OL Lyonnes W -
Quarter-finals
Manchester United W 3
Bayern Munich W 5
Real Madrid W 2
Barcelona W 12
Arsenal W 3
Chelsea W 2
Wolfsburg W 1
OL Lyonnes W 4
Semi-finals
Bayern Munich W 3
Barcelona W 5
Arsenal W 3
OL Lyonnes W 4
Final
Barcelona W 4
OL Lyonnes W 0