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Arsenal W vs Leuven W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Champions League Women 2025/2026 Meadow Park, Borehamwood
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Mertens Z.
23' Event
Russo A.
Assist: McCabe K.
29' Event
Pusztai S.
Assist: Everaerts K.

AI Match Summary

Arsenal W in this Champions League Women 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Arsenal W
35%
Draws
35%
Leuven W
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Arsenal W have won more games recently than Leuven W.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Arsenal W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Arsenal W, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Arsenal W here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Arsenal W Clean Sheet 16%
Leuven W Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal W Leuven W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 20 17
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 2.27 1.86
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 UEFA Champions League Women
Arsenal W vs Leuven W
3:1
Feb 11, 2026 UEFA Champions League Women
Leuven W vs Arsenal W
0:4
Dec 17, 2025 UEFA Champions League Women
Leuven W vs Arsenal W
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Russo A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Leuven W Compare

Top Goalscorer Pusztai S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal W 31 / 100
Leuven W 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal W Leuven W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arsenal W found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 3.67 goals as a typical output.

Leuven W let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Arsenal W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal W VS Leuven W
1.38 Goals Scored 2.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal W

(Home)
04 Oct
Manchester City W
4 : 2
Arsenal W
30 Sept
Paris FC W
2 : 2
Arsenal W
27 Sept
Chelsea W
1 : 0
Arsenal W
22 Sept
Arsenal W
1 : 0
Koge W
19 Sept
Arsenal W
1 : 1
Manchester United W
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Leuven W

(Away)
04 Oct
Leuven W
0 : 0
RAAL La Louviere W
01 Oct
PSG W
5 : 0
Leuven W
26 Sept
Leuven W
1 : 1
Club Brugge W
23 Sept
Leuven W
0 : 0
AS Roma W
19 Sept
Standard Liege W
0 : 5
Leuven W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Atl. Madrid W 0
Manchester United W 5
TBD -
Bayern Munich W -
Paris FC W 2
Real Madrid W 5
TBD -
Barcelona W -
Leuven W 1
Arsenal W 7
TBD -
Chelsea W -
Wolfsburg W 4
Juventus W 2
TBD -
OL Lyonnes W -
Quarter-finals
Manchester United W 3
Bayern Munich W 5
Real Madrid W 2
Barcelona W 12
Arsenal W 3
Chelsea W 2
Wolfsburg W 1
OL Lyonnes W 4
Semi-finals
Bayern Munich W 3
Barcelona W 5
Arsenal W 3
OL Lyonnes W 4
Final
Barcelona W 4
OL Lyonnes W 0