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Stadium Background

Arsenal W vs OL Lyonnes W

Europe Europe

Champions League Women 2025/2026 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal W Logo

Arsenal W

2 - 1
FT
OL Lyonnes W Logo

OL Lyonnes W

Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Brand J.
Assist: Yohannes L.
32'
Hegerberg A.
43'
Heaps L.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Arsenal W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Arsenal W
15%
Draws
34%
OL Lyonnes W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arsenal W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Arsenal W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Arsenal W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor OL Lyonnes W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Arsenal W Clean Sheet 10%
OL Lyonnes W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arsenal W OL Lyonnes W
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 24 21
Draws 2 4
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 2.47 3.03
Goals Conceded 0.6 0.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Champions League Women
OL Lyonnes W vs Arsenal W
3:1
Apr 26, 2026 Champions League Women
Arsenal W vs OL Lyonnes W
2:1
Oct 7, 2025 Champions League Women
Arsenal W vs OL Lyonnes W
1:2
Apr 27, 2025 Champions League Women
OL Lyonnes W vs Arsenal W
1:4
Apr 19, 2025 Champions League Women
Arsenal W vs OL Lyonnes W
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arsenal W Compare

Top Goalscorer Smith O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

OL Lyonnes W Compare

Top Goalscorer Brand J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arsenal W 29 / 100
OL Lyonnes W 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arsenal W OL Lyonnes W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arsenal W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Arsenal W scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Arsenal W has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

OL Lyonnes W let in goals in 45% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arsenal W VS OL Lyonnes W
2.75 Goals Scored 3.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Arsenal W

(Home)
26 Aug
Arsenal W
5 : 1
Charlton W
23 Aug
Arsenal W
1 : 0
Paris FC W
16 May
Liverpool W
1 : 3
Arsenal W
13 May
Arsenal W
1 : 0
Everton W
09 May
Aston Villa W
0 : 3
Arsenal W
Page 1 of 6

OL Lyonnes W

(Away)
29 Aug
OL Lyonnes W
4 : 0
London City Lionesses W
21 Aug
OL Lyonnes W
3 : 1
Aston Villa W
16 Aug
OL Lyonnes W
1 : 2
Eintracht Frankfurt W
08 Aug
OL Lyonnes W
1 : 1
Real Sociedad W
29 May
OL Lyonnes W
5 : 0
Paris FC W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Atl. Madrid W 0
Manchester United W 5
TBD -
Bayern Munich W -
Paris FC W 2
Real Madrid W 5
TBD -
Barcelona W -
Leuven W 1
Arsenal W 7
TBD -
Chelsea W -
Wolfsburg W 4
Juventus W 2
TBD -
OL Lyonnes W -
Quarter-finals
Manchester United W 3
Bayern Munich W 5
Real Madrid W 2
Barcelona W 12
Arsenal W 3
Chelsea W 2
Wolfsburg W 1
OL Lyonnes W 4
Semi-finals
Bayern Munich W 3
Barcelona W 5
Arsenal W 3
OL Lyonnes W 4
Final
Barcelona W 4
OL Lyonnes W 0