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Aruba vs Macau

World World

FIFA Series Kigali Pele Stadium, Kigali
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Match Events

5' Event
Fermina C.
Assist: Nedd K.
13' Event
Romano J.
Assist: Robertha G.
16' Event
Romano J.
Assist: Nedd K.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Aruba advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Aruba
6%
Draws
4%
Macau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Aruba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aruba come out ahead of Macau on wins alone.
  • Model gives Aruba a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Aruba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Aruba, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Aruba Clean Sheet 68%
Macau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aruba Macau
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 6
Draws 4 2
Losses 16 23
Goals Scored 1 0.33
Goals Conceded 2.63 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2026 FIFA Series
Aruba vs Macau
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aruba Compare

Top Goalscorer Romano J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fermina C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Macau Compare

Top Goalscorer Leong K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.3
Avg xA / game 0.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aruba 95 / 100
Macau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aruba Macau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ARU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macau let in goals in 90% of their last 31 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Macau has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Aruba has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Aruba VS Macau
1 Goals Scored 0.33
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Aruba

(Home)
07 Jun
Curacao
4 : 0
Aruba
29 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Liechtenstein
26 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Macau
15 Nov
Barbados
0 : 3
Aruba
12 Nov
Antigua and Barbuda
0 : 0
Aruba
Page 1 of 6

Macau

(Away)
29 Mar
Macau
0 : 6
Tanzania
26 Mar
Aruba
4 : 1
Macau
19 Mar
Hong Kong
2 : 0
Macau
14 Dec
Macau
1 : 2
Guam
10 Sept
Macau
0 : 1
Brunei
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Azerbaijan6
Saint Lucia1
Oman-
Sierra Leone-
Indonesia4
Saint Kitts and Nevis0
Solomon Islands2
Bulgaria10
Kazakhstan-
Comoros-
Kuwait-
Namibia-
United States Virgin Islands5
American Samoa2
Puerto Rico4
Guam0
Rwanda4
Grenada0
Kenya1
Estonia2
Aruba4
Macau1
Tanzania0
Liechtenstein1
Final
Azerbaijan2
Sierra Leone1
Indonesia0
Bulgaria1
TBD-
TBD-
United States Virgin Islands0
Puerto Rico2
Rwanda2
Estonia0
Aruba4
Liechtenstein1