Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

First League

FC Astana 2

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Arys play FC Astana 2 in the First League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Arys averaged 1.06 goals scored and 2.38 conceded. FC Astana 2 averaged 1.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Arys won 2, FC Astana 2 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 30, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Arys and 2.31 for FC Astana 2. This points to a FC Astana 2 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Arys

15%

Draws

50%

FC Astana 2

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Astana 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Arys picked up more points recently compared to FC Astana 2.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 2.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 80%

Over 3.5 Goals 48%

Over 4.5 Goals 24%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

Arys Clean Sheet 10%

FC Astana 2 Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 79%

Second Half Goal 84%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Arys	FC Astana 2
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	6	11
Draws	4	2
Losses	22	17
Goals Scored	1.06	1.6
Goals Conceded	2.38	2.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 First League

Arys vs FC Astana 2

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Sep 1, 2023 First League

FC Astana 2 vs Arys

Possession: 58% - 50% Cards: 3 - 0

3:0

May 20, 2023 First League

Arys vs FC Astana 2

Possession: 45% - 48% Cards: 4 - 0

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Bakirov S.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Saduakas M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

FC Astana 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaltanov A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 2.16

Avg xA / game 1.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arys 34 / 100

FC Astana 2 47 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Arys FC Astana 2

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: FC Astana 2 or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8%

1.35

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Arys attacking → ← attacking FC Astana 2

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arys scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

FC Astana 2 let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Arys went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

FC Astana 2 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 35

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.38

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty 2	13	11	2	0	44:7	35
2	Shakhter Karagandy	13	11	1	1	36:5	34
3	Turan	13	8	1	4	25:11	25
4	FC Astana 2	13	6	2	5	24:22	20
5	Akademiya Ontustik	13	6	2	5	19:17	20
6	Jaiyq	13	6	1	6	11:17	19
7	Khan Tengri	13	5	2	6	18:25	17
8	FC Ekibastuz	13	4	5	4	17:24	17
9	Taraz	13	5	1	7	19:19	16
10	Aktobe 2	13	4	4	5	26:39	16
11	Kaspij Aktau 2	13	4	3	6	16:22	15
12	Arys	13	3	1	9	15:28	10
13	Tobol 2	13	1	4	8	21:38	7
14	Yelimay Semey 2	13	1	3	9	10:27	6