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Arys vs FC Ekibastuz

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Orazaly A.
Assist: Kulmaganbetov A.
67' Event
Kuralbaev E.
(Penalty)
75' Event
Vaganov M.
Assist: Mansurov B.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Arys and FC Ekibastuz finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Arys.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Arys
15%
Draws
0%
FC Ekibastuz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and FC Ekibastuz come out ahead of Arys on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Arys's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Arys Clean Sheet 14%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arys FC Ekibastuz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 4 5
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 1.17 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.13 2.33
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
3:1
Jun 12, 2026 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
1:1
Aug 30, 2024 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:2
Jul 5, 2024 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
3:0
Oct 24, 2023 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaganov M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Abdimutalipov K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Top Goalscorer Orazaly A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arys 66 / 100
FC Ekibastuz 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arys FC Ekibastuz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arys Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ekibastuz has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

FC Ekibastuz's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Arys scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Arys VS FC Ekibastuz
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Arys

(Home)
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

FC Ekibastuz

(Away)
18 Sept
FC Astana 2
7 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
FC Ekibastuz
2 : 4
Turan
20 Aug
Akademiya Ontustik
3 : 2
FC Ekibastuz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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