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Arys vs Shakhter Karagandy

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Litosh A.
40' Event
Galkin M.
Assist: Litosh A.
46' Event
Litosh A.
Assist: Migunov A.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Arys and Shakhter Karagandy finished 0-6, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shakhter Karagandy.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Arys
20%
Draws
45%
Shakhter Karagandy
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhter Karagandy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Arys haven't matched Shakhter Karagandy's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Shakhter Karagandy a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%
Shakhter Karagandy Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Arys Shakhter Karagandy
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 24
Draws 4 3
Losses 19 3
Goals Scored 1.17 2.7
Goals Conceded 2.13 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 First League
Shakhter Karagandy vs Arys
4:1
Apr 23, 2026 First League
Arys vs Shakhter Karagandy
0:6

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Arys Compare

Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Shakhter Karagandy Compare

Top Goalscorer Litosh A.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Galkin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Arys 10 / 100
Shakhter Karagandy 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Arys Shakhter Karagandy

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhter Karagandy Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.50 goals per match.

Arys's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Arys remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Shakhter Karagandy let in goals in 27% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Arys VS Shakhter Karagandy
1 Goals Scored 2.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Arys

(Home)
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
20 Aug
Arys
1 : 1
Taraz
Page 1 of 6

Shakhter Karagandy

(Away)
17 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
0 : 0
Taraz
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
03 Sept
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
Khan Tengri
27 Aug
Yelimay Semey 2
0 : 3
Shakhter Karagandy
21 Aug
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 0
FC Astana 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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