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Stadium Background

AS Maniema vs USM Alger

Africa Africa

CAF Confederation Cup 2025/2026 Stade TP Mazembe, Lubumbashi
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Pitroipa C.
(Penalty)
46'
Sub
Likonza G. In: Benzaza B.
Out: Likonza G.
46'
Sub
Kamagate D. In: Bouderbala M.
Out: Kamagate D.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with AS Maniema advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
AS Maniema
35%
Draws
31%
USM Alger
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • USM Alger haven't matched AS Maniema's recent run of results.
  • 34% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • AS Maniema have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor AS Maniema, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
AS Maniema Clean Sheet 68%
USM Alger Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Maniema USM Alger
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 17 11
Draws 6 16
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.57 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.8 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 CAF Confederation Cup
USM Alger vs AS Maniema
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 CAF Confederation Cup
AS Maniema vs USM Alger
2:1
Mar 18, 2018 CAF Confederation Cup
USM Alger vs AS Maniema
1:1
Mar 7, 2018 CAF Confederation Cup
AS Maniema vs USM Alger
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Maniema Compare

Top Goalscorer Moanda E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

USM Alger Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Maniema 41 / 100
USM Alger 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Maniema USM Alger

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Maniema Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Maniema's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

USM Alger has conceded goals in 65% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

AS Maniema has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

AS Maniema VS USM Alger
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Maniema

(Home)
20 Jun
Simba
2 : 1
AS Maniema
17 Jun
AS Maniema
1 : 1
Aigles du Congo
14 Jun
Celeste
1 : 3
AS Maniema
10 Jun
AS Vita Club
1 : 2
AS Maniema
07 Jun
AS Maniema
2 : 1
Mazembe
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USM Alger

(Away)
19 Sept
Olympique Akbou
2 : 3
USM Alger
10 Sept
USM Alger
2 : 0
JS El Biar
04 Sept
Khenchela
0 : 0
USM Alger
15 Aug
Club Africain
0 : 0
USM Alger
06 Jun
Oran
2 : 2
USM Alger
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
AS Maniema 2
USM Alger 2
Olympique de Safi 3
Wydad Athletic 3
Al Masry 1
CR Belouizdad 1
Otoho d'Oyo 2
Zamalek 3
Semi-finals
USM Alger 1
Olympique de Safi 1
CR Belouizdad 0
Zamalek 1
Final
USM Alger 2
Zamalek 1