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AS Marsa vs AS Gabes

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026
AS Marsa Logo

AS Marsa

1 - 0
FT
AS Gabes Logo

AS Gabes

Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Ben Amor I.
Own Goal
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 game between AS Marsa and AS Gabes finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Marsa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
AS Marsa
15%
Draws
0%
AS Gabes
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AS Marsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and AS Marsa come out ahead of AS Gabes on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans AS Marsa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
AS Gabes Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Marsa AS Gabes
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 2
Draws 3 7
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 1.07 0.41
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 28, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs AS Gabes
1:0
Aug 22, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Gabes vs AS Marsa
2:1
Apr 30, 2023 Ligue 2
AS Marsa vs AS Gabes
2:0
Dec 10, 2022 Ligue 2
AS Gabes vs AS Marsa
0:0
Apr 27, 2017 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Gabes vs AS Marsa
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Marsa 95 / 100
AS Gabes 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Marsa AS Gabes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Gabes's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Away concern: AS Gabes has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: AS Marsa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

AS Marsa VS AS Gabes
1.25 Goals Scored 0.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Marsa

(Home)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0
PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0
AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6

AS Gabes

(Away)
26 Sept
AS Gabes
1 : 2
Megrine
13 May
AS Gabes
0 : 1
Stade Tunisien
08 May
Soliman
1 : 0
AS Gabes
03 May
AS Gabes
0 : 2
JS Kairouan
29 Apr
Monastir
2 : 0
AS Gabes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 30 19 9 2 43:10 66
2 Esperance Tunis 30 18 9 3 45:11 63
3 CS Sfaxien 30 18 8 4 44:13 62
4 Stade Tunisien 30 12 12 6 28:14 48
5 Monastir 30 11 12 7 28:19 45
6 Zarzis 30 11 8 11 30:28 41
7 Etoile Sahel 30 11 8 11 28:30 41
8 Metlaoui 30 9 13 8 19:25 40
9 Jeunesse Sportive 30 10 6 14 24:33 36
10 Ben Guerdane 30 8 11 11 18:22 35
11 AS Marsa 30 11 2 17 26:33 35
12 CA Bizertin 30 8 9 13 18:29 33
13 Olympique Beja 30 9 5 16 18:39 32
14 JS Kairouan 30 9 4 17 20:41 31
15 Soliman 30 6 9 15 15:31 27
16 AS Gabes 30 3 9 18 11:37 18
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)