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AS Marsa vs Metlaoui - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tunisia Tunisia

Ligue Professionnelle 1 Abdelaziz Chtioui Stadium, La Marsa
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
03:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

AS Marsa host Metlaoui in the Ligue Professionnelle 1. This shapes up as a tight, low-scoring affair. Metlaoui have shipped 1 goals a game lately, while AS Marsa have conceded 1.17 and scored 0.9. Head-to-head, AS Marsa have won 2 to Metlaoui's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Apr 13, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.00 vs 0.88, favoring AS Marsa. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
AS Marsa
15%
Draws
26%
Metlaoui
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AS Marsa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • AS Marsa have won more games recently than Metlaoui.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Ligue Professionnelle 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 20%
Metlaoui Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Marsa Metlaoui
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 3 11
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 0.9 0.82
Goals Conceded 1.17 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Metlaoui vs AS Marsa
1:0
Oct 19, 2025 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Metlaoui
0:1
May 12, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
AS Marsa vs Metlaoui
1:0
Feb 18, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Metlaoui vs AS Marsa
3:1
Jan 3, 2024 Ligue Professionnelle 1
Metlaoui vs AS Marsa
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Marsa 31 / 100
Metlaoui 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Marsa Metlaoui

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Marsa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Solid form: AS Marsa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: Metlaoui has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

AS Marsa found the back of the net in 55% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

AS Marsa VS Metlaoui
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 25%
63% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Marsa

(Home)
12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0
Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1
AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0
PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0
AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2
AS Marsa
Page 1 of 6

Metlaoui

(Away)
13 Sept
Jeunesse Sportive
1 : 0
Metlaoui
06 Sept
Metlaoui
1 : 0
Hamam-Sousse
30 Aug
Etoile Sahel
2 : 1
Metlaoui
23 Aug
Metlaoui
0 : 1
Club Africain
17 May
Metlaoui
1 : 3
Esperance Tunis
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club Africain 3 3 0 0 3:0 9
2 Esperance Tunis 4 3 0 1 7:6 9
3 Ben Guerdane 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
4 CS Sfaxien 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
5 Monastir 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
6 PS Sakiet Eddaier 4 2 2 0 4:1 8
7 Jeunesse Sportive 4 2 1 1 5:4 7
8 CA Bizertin 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
9 Stade Tunisien 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
10 Etoile Sahel 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 AS Marsa 4 1 1 2 2:3 4
12 Zarzis 4 1 0 3 3:5 3
13 Metlaoui 4 1 0 3 2:4 3
14 Olympique Beja 4 0 2 2 3:5 2
15 Hamam-Sousse 4 0 1 3 1:5 1
16 Hammam-Lif 4 0 0 4 0:4 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)