Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AS Roma vs Bologna

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Thu, Mar 19, 2026
3 - 4
08:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Sub
Kone M. In: Pellegrini Lo.
Out: Kone M.
22' Event
Rowe J.
Assist: Castro S.
26'
Vitik M.

AI Match Summary

Bologna in this Europa League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
AS Roma
35%
Draws
10%
Bologna
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: AS Roma

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

55% / Medium Confidence
  • Bologna haven't matched AS Roma's recent run of results.
  • AS Roma are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • AS Roma have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Bologna, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 68%
Bologna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Roma Bologna
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 2.07 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Serie A
Bologna vs AS Roma
0:2
Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
AS Roma vs Bologna
3:4
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Bologna vs AS Roma
1:1
Aug 23, 2025 Serie A
AS Roma vs Bologna
1:0
Jan 12, 2025 Serie A
Bologna vs AS Roma
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Roma Compare

Top Goalscorer Ndicka E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pellegrini Lo.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Bologna Compare

Top Goalscorer Rowe J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Castro S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Roma 95 / 100
Bologna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Roma Bologna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AS Roma Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: AS Roma scored in 93% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: AS Roma stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Bologna let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

AS Roma VS Bologna
2.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Roma

(Home)
19 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 2
Inter
14 Sept
Torino
0 : 2
AS Roma
10 Sept
Fenerbahce
1 : 1
AS Roma
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
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Bologna

(Away)
19 Sept
Bologna
1 : 1
Torino
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0
Bologna
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2
Sassuolo
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1
Lazio
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets 2
Ferencvaros 3
Braga -
TBD -
Panathinaikos 4
Plzen 3
Betis -
TBD -
Din. Zagreb 4
Genk 6
Freiburg -
TBD -
PAOK 1
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon -
TBD -
Celtic 2
VfB Stuttgart 4
FC Porto -
TBD -
Fenerbahce 2
Nottingham 4
Midtjylland -
TBD -
Brann 0
Bologna 2
AS Roma -
TBD -
Lille 2
Crvena zvezda 1
Aston Villa -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros 2
Braga 4
Panathinaikos 1
Betis 4
Genk 2
Freiburg 5
Celta Vigo 3
Lyon 1
VfB Stuttgart 1
FC Porto 4
Nottingham 3
Midtjylland 2
Bologna 5
AS Roma 4
Lille 0
Aston Villa 3
Quarter-finals
Braga 5
Betis 3
Freiburg 6
Celta Vigo 1
FC Porto 1
Nottingham 2
Bologna 1
Aston Villa 7
Semi-finals
Braga 3
Freiburg 4
Nottingham 1
Aston Villa 4
Final
Freiburg 0
Aston Villa 3