Sport Picks

Stadium Background

AS Roma vs Lecce

Italy Italy

Serie A 2025/2026 Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Mancini G. In: Ghilardi D.
Out: Mancini G.
51'
Sub
El Aynaoui N. In: Vaz R.
Out: El Aynaoui N.
57' Event
Vaz R.
Assist: Hermoso M.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A 2025/2026 game between AS Roma and Lecce finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward AS Roma.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
AS Roma
20%
Draws
47%
Lecce
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • AS Roma carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lecce a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors AS Roma here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 17%
Lecce Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric AS Roma Lecce
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 7 5
Losses 8 14
Goals Scored 1.93 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie A
AS Roma vs Lecce
1:0
Jan 6, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:2
Mar 29, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:1
Dec 7, 2024 Serie A
AS Roma vs Lecce
4:1
Apr 1, 2024 Serie A
Lecce vs AS Roma
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

AS Roma Compare

Top Goalscorer Vaz R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lecce Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

AS Roma 28 / 100
Lecce 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
AS Roma Lecce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

AS Roma's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lecce conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

AS Roma went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

AS Roma VS Lecce
2.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 38%
75% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

AS Roma

(Home)
08 Aug
Brighton
3 : 0
AS Roma
04 Aug
Newport
1 : 4
AS Roma
01 Aug
Cardiff
4 : 1
AS Roma
26 Jul
Cannes
3 : 3
AS Roma
24 May
Verona
0 : 2
AS Roma
Page 1 of 6

Lecce

(Away)
09 Aug
Lecce
1 : 0
Monopoli
29 Jul
Lecce
5 : 2
Bistrica
25 Jul
Lecce
2 : 2
Istra 1961
22 Jul
Lecce
0 : 1
Politehnica Timisoara
19 Jul
Haladas
0 : 1
Lecce
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter 38 27 6 5 89:35 87
2 Napoli 38 23 7 8 58:36 76
3 AS Roma 38 23 4 11 59:31 73
4 Como 38 20 11 7 65:29 71
5 AC Milan 38 20 10 8 53:35 70
6 Juventus 38 19 12 7 61:34 69
7 Atalanta 38 15 14 9 51:36 59
8 Bologna 38 16 8 14 49:46 56
9 Lazio 38 14 12 12 41:40 54
10 Udinese 38 14 8 16 45:48 50
11 Sassuolo 38 14 7 17 46:50 49
12 Torino 38 12 9 17 44:63 45
13 Parma 38 11 12 15 28:46 45
14 Cagliari 38 11 10 17 40:53 43
15 Fiorentina 38 9 15 14 41:50 42
16 Genoa 38 10 11 17 41:51 41
17 Lecce 38 10 8 20 28:50 38
18 Cremonese 38 8 10 20 32:57 34
19 Verona 38 3 12 23 25:61 21
20 Pisa 38 2 12 24 26:71 18
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B (Main)