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Asaria vs Al Mahalla Tripoli

Libya Libya

Premier League 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Asaria play Al Mahalla Tripoli in the Premier League 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Asaria averaged 0.84 goals scored and 1.56 conceded. Al Mahalla Tripoli averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Asaria won 0, Al Mahalla Tripoli won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 4, 2023 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Asaria and 1.31 for Al Mahalla Tripoli. This points to a Al Mahalla Tripoli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Asaria
35%
Draws
35%
Al Mahalla Tripoli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Al Mahalla Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Asaria picked up more points recently compared to Al Mahalla Tripoli.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
Asaria Clean Sheet 18%
Al Mahalla Tripoli Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Asaria Al Mahalla Tripoli
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 4 6
Draws 13 13
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.84 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.23

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 4, 2023 Premier League
Al Mahalla Tripoli vs Asaria
1:1
Nov 3, 2022 Premier League
Asaria vs Al Mahalla Tripoli
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Asaria 31 / 100
Al Mahalla Tripoli 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Asaria Al Mahalla Tripoli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Al Mahalla Tripoli or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +36.5%
4.55
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +19.5%
3.23
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Asaria attacking → ← attacking Al Mahalla Tripoli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Asaria scored in 66% of their last 32 games.

Al Mahalla Tripoli let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Asaria went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Al Mahalla Tripoli lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 31
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al Ahly Benghazi1889126:1633
2Al Nasr1879220:1530
3Al Hilal Benghazi1885523:1629
4Al Akhdar1875623:1926
5Darnes1876520:1724
6Al Taawun1859421:2124
7Al Sadaqa18411316:1823
8Al-Suqoor1848617:2220
9Al Tahaddi1828812:2014
10Shabaab Al Jabal18141310:244
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Al-Ittihad18115218:635
2Al Ahly Tripoli1888224:1132
3Abu Salim1888216:832
4Olympic Azzaweya1867523:1725
5Asswehly1866619:1924
6Asaria18210616:2716
7Al-Khmes1846811:1815
8Al Madina18310515:1913
9Al Ittihad Misurata1829712:1612
10Al Mahalla Tripoli1819811:246