Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ascoli vs Livorno

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Gori G.
13' Event
D'Uffizi S.
17' Event
Baldi L.

AI Match Summary

Ascoli in this Serie C - Group B matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Ascoli
28%
Draws
22%
Livorno
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Ascoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ascoli lately — more wins on the board than Livorno.
  • Model gives Ascoli a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie C - Group B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ascoli have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Livorno Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ascoli Livorno
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 18 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1
Goals Conceded 0.38 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.38 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 30, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Ascoli vs Livorno
3:1
Sep 20, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Livorno vs Ascoli
0:3
Feb 1, 2020 Serie B
Livorno vs Ascoli
0:3
Sep 14, 2019 Serie B
Ascoli vs Livorno
2:0
Mar 10, 2019 Serie B
Ascoli vs Livorno
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Gori G.
2 Goals
Assists Leader D'Uffizi S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Livorno Compare

Top Goalscorer Baldi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ascoli 59 / 100
Livorno 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ascoli Livorno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ascoli scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Livorno has conceded goals in 78% of their last 27 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Ascoli stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ascoli VS Livorno
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.86
50% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 29%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Ascoli

(Home)
07 Jun
Ascoli
3 : 0
Union Brescia
03 Jun
Union Brescia
1 : 1
Ascoli
27 May
Catania
2 : 1
Ascoli
24 May
Ascoli
4 : 0
Catania
20 May
Ascoli
1 : 0
Potenza
Page 1 of 6

Livorno

(Away)
25 Jul
Livorno
1 : 1
Ghiviborgo
26 Apr
US Pontedera
0 : 2
Livorno
12 Apr
Arezzo
2 : 0
Livorno
03 Apr
Livorno
3 : 0
Gubbio
28 Mar
Sassari Torres
3 : 1
Livorno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arezzo36248464:2480
2Ascoli36238563:2377
3Ravenna36227750:3073
4Campobasso361710949:3759
5Juventus U233614111146:4353
6Pianese361117837:3450
7Pineto3613111242:4550
8Gubbio3611151031:3248
9Ternana3614111144:4048
10Vis Pesaro3611131238:3646
11Livorno361271739:5143
12Forli FC3610101641:5240
13Carpi3610101635:4840
14Perugia368141438:4438
15Guidonia 1937368141430:3638
16Sambenedettese368131530:3737
17Sassari Torres366181232:4536
18Bra366141637:5432
19US Pontedera363112227:6220
20Rimini00000:00
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group B (Play Out)