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ASD Modica Calcio vs Athletic Palermo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

ASD Modica Calcio host Athletic Palermo in the Serie D - Group I. This one's hard to separate. ASD Modica Calcio have averaged 1.43 scored and 0.71 conceded recently, against Athletic Palermo's 1.62 scored and 1.45 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.56 - 1.06) back Athletic Palermo to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
ASD Modica Calcio
20%
Draws
38%
Athletic Palermo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: ASD Modica Calcio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Athletic Palermo lately — more wins on the board than ASD Modica Calcio.
  • Model gives ASD Modica Calcio a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
ASD Modica Calcio Clean Sheet 20%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric ASD Modica Calcio Athletic Palermo
Matches Played 7 29
Wins 3 14
Draws 1 4
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 1.43 1.62
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

ASD Modica Calcio 49 / 100
Athletic Palermo 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
ASD Modica Calcio Athletic Palermo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASD Modica Calcio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Athletic Palermo conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: ASD Modica Calcio stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

ASD Modica Calcio found the back of the net in 57% of recent matches (7 games).

Athletic Palermo lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

ASD Modica Calcio VS Athletic Palermo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
38% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

ASD Modica Calcio

(Home)
07 Oct
Calcio Avola
0 : 4
ASD Modica Calcio
04 Oct
ASD Modica Calcio
3 : 0
Enna
27 Sept
Siracusa
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
20 Sept
ASD Modica Calcio
1 : 0
Castrumfavara
16 Sept
Sambiase
1 : 0
ASD Modica Calcio
Page 1 of 2

Athletic Palermo

(Away)
04 Oct
Gela
0 : 0
Athletic Palermo
27 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Milazzo
20 Sept
Vibonese
3 : 0
Athletic Palermo
16 Sept
Athletic Palermo
1 : 1
Digiesse PraiaTortora
13 Sept
Athletic Palermo
3 : 0
Enna
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Reggina 6 5 0 1 15:1 15
2 Vibonese 6 4 1 1 15:5 13
3 Sambiase 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
4 Calcio Avola 6 4 0 2 9:10 12
5 Igea Virtus 6 3 2 1 14:11 11
6 Licata 6 3 2 1 8:8 11
7 Digiesse PraiaTortora 6 2 3 1 8:4 9
8 Milazzo 6 3 0 3 5:8 9
9 Athletic Palermo 6 2 2 2 9:8 8
10 Nissa 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 ASD Modica Calcio 6 2 1 3 6:5 7
12 Lamezia 6 1 2 3 7:13 5
13 Siracusa 6 3 2 1 8:5 4
14 Castrumfavara 6 1 1 4 5:7 4
15 Gela 6 1 2 3 4:6 4
16 USD Ragusa 6 0 2 4 4:9 2
17 Trapani 6 2 0 4 3:10 1
18 Enna 6 0 1 5 0:15 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group I (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I (Play Out)