Sport Picks
Ashton United vs Ilkeston - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
England
NPL Premier Division 
Match Events
42'
42'
Turner D.
76'
76'
Hunter A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
30%
35%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Ashton United average 1.38 goals a game right now, well clear of Ilkeston's 1.
- 35% — that's where the model lands on Ashton United taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ashton United Clean Sheet 20%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ashton United | Ilkeston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 9 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.87 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 25, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Ilkeston
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Ilkeston
0:0
Nov 8, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Ashton United
0:2
Feb 1, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Ilkeston
2:1
Sep 28, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Ashton United
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ashton United Compare
Top Goalscorer Turner D.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Ilkeston Compare
Top Goalscorer Hunter A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ashton United 85 / 100
Ilkeston 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ashton United Ilkeston
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ashton United Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Defensive concern: Ilkeston conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.
Ashton United found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Ashton United has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ashton United VS Ilkeston
1.63 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Ashton United
(Home) 21 Oct
Avro
3 : 2 Ashton United
17 Oct
Ashton United
1 : 2 Redcar Athletic
13 Oct
Ashton United
0 : 0 Alfreton
10 Oct
Leek Town
2 : 2 Ashton United
06 Oct
Quorn
2 : 2 Ashton United
Page 1 of 6
17 Oct
Ashton United
1 : 2 Redcar Athletic
13 Oct
Ashton United
0 : 0 Alfreton
12 Sept
Ashton United
0 : 1 Cleethorpes
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2 Gainsborough
25 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 3
Ilkeston
(Away) 17 Oct
Ilkeston
2 : 0 Avro
13 Oct
Gainsborough
3 : 1 Ilkeston
10 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 5 Redcar Athletic
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2 Guiseley
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6
13 Oct
Gainsborough
3 : 1 Ilkeston
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1 Ilkeston
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
29 Aug
Bury FC
7 : 0 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 33:13 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 31:9 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 27:12 | 28 |
| 4 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 37:27 | 28 |
| 5 | Gainsborough | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 29:16 | 25 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 26:25 | 24 |
| 7 | Warrington Town | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 24:19 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 25:21 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 24:17 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 20:28 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 22:11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20:33 | 19 |
| 14 | Hyde | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15:29 | 15 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26:26 | 14 |
| 16 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17:18 | 14 |
| 17 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 23:29 | 14 |
| 18 | AFC Emley | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15:26 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 18:28 | 12 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17:34 | 10 |
| 21 | Ilkeston | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 10:34 | 10 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15:23 | 7 |
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