Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Sanogo S.
35'
35'
Kendall R.
49'
49'
Okome N.
AI Match Summary
The NPL Premier Division game between Ashton United and Lancaster finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ashton United.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lancaster
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Lancaster's 1.29 goals per match outpaces what Ashton United have produced (1.26).
- Win probability leans Ashton United's way, sitting at 36%.
- Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Ashton United Clean Sheet 20%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ashton United | Lancaster |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 10 |
| Draws | 8 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.38 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Lancaster
4:1
Jan 31, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Ashton United
3:2
Sep 20, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Lancaster
1:3
Feb 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Lancaster
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Ashton United
2:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ashton United Compare
Top Goalscorer Kendall R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Okome N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69
Lancaster Compare
Top Goalscorer Sanogo S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ashton United 36 / 100
Lancaster 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ashton United Lancaster
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
H2H data points to 4.20 goals as a typical output.
Attacking prowess: Ashton United scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.
Lancaster let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.
Lancaster lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Ashton United VS Lancaster
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Ashton United
(Home) 19 Sept
Buxton
1 : 0 Ashton United
12 Sept
Ashton United
0 : 1 Cleethorpes
05 Sept
Whitby
2 : 5 Ashton United
31 Aug
Curzon Ashton
2 : 0 Ashton United
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2 Gainsborough
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Ashton United
0 : 1 Cleethorpes
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2 Gainsborough
25 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 1 Ilkeston
18 Aug
Ashton United
2 : 0 Whitby
08 Aug
Ashton United
4 : 1 Lancaster
Page 1 of 3
Lancaster
(Away) 19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0 Lancaster
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2 Curzon Ashton
08 Sept
Tadcaster Albion
0 : 2 Lancaster
05 Sept
Lancaster
1 : 1 Tadcaster Albion
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3 Workington
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0 Lancaster
08 Sept
Tadcaster Albion
0 : 2 Lancaster
28 Aug
Guiseley
1 : 2 Lancaster
25 Aug
Bury FC
0 : 1 Lancaster
18 Aug
Redcar Athletic
3 : 1 Lancaster
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 25:6 | 23 |
| 2 | Avro | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28:16 | 22 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19:7 | 22 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 22:10 | 19 |
| 5 | Warrington Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18:14 | 17 |
| 6 | Bury FC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:8 | 16 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 8 | Workington | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17:15 | 16 |
| 9 | Gainsborough | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Warrington Rylands | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:13 | 13 |
| 11 | Alfreton | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 15:10 | 12 |
| 12 | Whitby | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 14:24 | 12 |
| 13 | Ashton United | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:9 | 11 |
| 14 | Hyde | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:19 | 11 |
| 15 | AFC Emley | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Lancaster | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9:17 | 10 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Bamber Bridge | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14:27 | 9 |
| 19 | Stockton | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13:20 | 8 |
| 20 | Ilkeston | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6:21 | 7 |
| 21 | Quorn | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12:23 | 6 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12:19 | 5 |
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
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Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
