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Ashton United vs Stockton

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Lusiama E.
55' Event
Hayes K.
83' Event
Hayes K.

AI Match Summary

Stockton in this NPL Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Stockton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Ashton United
22%
Draws
18%
Stockton
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Ashton United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Stockton lately — more wins on the board than Ashton United.
  • Win probability leans Ashton United's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Ashton United Clean Sheet 20%
Stockton Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ashton United Stockton
Matches Played 34 33
Wins 12 14
Draws 8 7
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Stockton
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Ashton United
1:2
Mar 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ashton United vs Stockton
0:1
Nov 9, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Ashton United
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ashton United Compare

Top Goalscorer Lusiama E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Stockton Compare

Top Goalscorer Hayes K.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ashton United 58 / 100
Stockton 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ashton United Stockton

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ASH Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Ashton United scored in 71% of their last 34 outings.

Stockton has conceded goals in 79% of their last 33 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Ashton United stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ashton United VS Stockton
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536