Sport Picks

Libya

Premier League

Al Ahly Tripoli

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Assabah play Al Ahly Tripoli in the Premier League. Al Ahly Tripoli are favorites here. Recently, Assabah averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1 conceded. Al Ahly Tripoli averaged 2.1 goals scored and 0.47 conceded. In past meetings, Assabah won 0, Al Ahly Tripoli won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 9, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.50 for Assabah and 2.06 for Al Ahly Tripoli. This points to a Al Ahly Tripoli double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%

Assabah

17%

Draws

57%

Al Ahly Tripoli

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Al Ahly Tripoli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence

Assabah picked up more points recently compared to Al Ahly Tripoli.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.50 vs 2.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 60%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%

Assabah Clean Sheet 10%

Al Ahly Tripoli Clean Sheet 23%

First Half Goal 54%

Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Assabah	Al Ahly Tripoli
Matches Played	18	30
Wins	6	22
Draws	4	6
Losses	8	2
Goals Scored	0.67	2.1
Goals Conceded	1	0.47
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	3.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2026 Premier League

Al Ahly Tripoli vs Assabah

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 2 - 1

2:0

Jan 5, 2026 Premier League

Assabah vs Al Ahly Tripoli

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 2 - 2

0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Assabah 25 / 100

Al Ahly Tripoli 56 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Assabah Al Ahly Tripoli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli Win (2)

Secondary Pick Al Ahly Tripoli & Under 3.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +44.6%

5.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Assabah attacking → ← attacking Al Ahly Tripoli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Assabah scored in 56% of their last 18 games.

Al Ahly Tripoli let in goals in 37% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Assabah went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Al Ahly Tripoli lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low

Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 72

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 3.00

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Ahly Tripoli	18	15	2	1	47:9	47
2	Asswehly	18	13	4	1	35:9	43
3	Al Madina	18	8	4	6	23:22	28
4	Al Watan	18	6	5	7	14:18	23
5	Assabah	18	6	4	8	12:18	22
6	Al Malaab El Libby	18	5	5	8	15:21	20
7	Al-Khmes	18	5	5	8	19:31	20
8	Al Qadisiyah	18	6	2	10	11:24	19
9	Al Dahra	18	3	5	10	20:27	14
10	Abu Salim	18	3	4	11	13:30	13

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al-Ittihad	16	13	3	0	35:9	42
2	Olympic Azzaweya	16	9	4	3	25:11	31
3	Al Ittihad Misurata	16	7	6	3	21:11	27
4	Al-Majd	16	6	5	5	14:13	23
5	Al Shomooa	16	6	4	6	24:19	22
6	Shabab Al-Ghar	16	4	6	6	17:27	18
7	Al Tirsana	16	3	7	6	15:23	16
8	Ittihad Gharyan	16	2	4	10	10:25	10
9	Abi Al Ashar	16	1	3	12	9:32	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Military Union	16	10	5	1	26:9	35
2	Al Hilal Benghazi	16	10	4	2	20:11	34
3	Al Ahly Benghazi	16	9	6	1	23:6	33
4	Al Taawun	16	7	5	4	19:14	26
5	Darnes	16	5	5	6	16:16	20
6	Al Sadaqa	16	5	4	7	16:17	19
7	Al-Anwar	16	1	8	7	12:23	11
8	Al Borouq	16	2	4	10	7:21	10
9	Al-Suqoor	16	1	3	12	13:35	6

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Al Nasr	14	11	2	1	28:7	35
2	Al Akhdar	14	8	4	2	16:9	28
3	Al-Afreeki	14	7	2	5	29:18	23
4	Al Tahaddi	14	5	6	3	21:14	21
5	Khaleej Sirte	14	5	4	5	25:22	19
6	Wefaq Ajdabiya	14	5	3	6	13:17	18
7	Al Murooj SC	14	4	1	9	16:24	13
8	Al-Andalus	14	0	0	14	1:38	0