Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Assisense vs Matonense

Brazil Brazil

Paulista B
Our Tip

Match Events

53' Event
Araujo E.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-0. The second leg ended 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Assisense
30%
Draws
41%
Matonense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Matonense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Assisense come out ahead of Matonense on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Matonense taking it.
  • Assisense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Matonense, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Assisense Clean Sheet 10%
Matonense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Assisense Matonense
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 8
Draws 10 3
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 1.75 3.25
Goals Conceded 1.5 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 3.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Paulista B
Matonense vs Assisense
0:0
Jun 27, 2026 Paulista B
Assisense vs Matonense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Assisense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Matonense Compare

Top Goalscorer Araujo E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.95
Avg xA / game 1.81

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Assisense 10 / 100
Matonense 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Assisense Matonense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAT Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Matonense's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Assisense found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Assisense went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 0.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Assisense VS Matonense
1.75 Goals Scored 3.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Assisense

(Home)
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Assisense
4 : 4
Riopretano
14 Jun
Jose Bonifacio EC
1 : 0
Assisense
05 Jun
Assisense
4 : 2
Santa Fe SP
Page 1 of 6

Matonense

(Away)
18 Jul
Flamengo SP
3 : 1
Matonense
11 Jul
Matonense
0 : 1
Flamengo SP
04 Jul
Matonense
0 : 0
Assisense
27 Jun
Assisense
0 : 1
Matonense
20 Jun
Matonense
2 : 1
Mogi Mirim
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Independente SP 4
Tupa 0
Paulinense 3
Sao Carlos 0
Flamengo SP 2
Audax-SP 1
Matonense 1
Assisense 0
Itaqua 6
Paulinia FU 1
Maua FC 3
Uniao Mogi 5
Jose Bonifacio EC 4
Manthiqueira 1
America SP 3
Santacruzense 0
Quarter-finals
Independente SP 3
Paulinense 1
Flamengo SP 4
Matonense 1
Itaqua 5
Uniao Mogi 1
Jose Bonifacio EC 2
America SP 4
Semi-finals
Independente SP 2
Flamengo SP 1
Itaqua 1
America SP 4
Final
Independente SP -
America SP -