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Aston Villa vs AS Roma

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Club Friendly 2025 Bescot Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Buendia E.
17' Event
Ramsey J.
Assist: Tielemans Y.
40' Event
Watkins O.
Assist: Buendia E.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly 2025 game between Aston Villa and AS Roma finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aston Villa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Aston Villa
30%
Draws
34%
AS Roma
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Aston Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Aston Villa haven't matched AS Roma's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Aston Villa's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 11%
AS Roma Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aston Villa AS Roma
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 16
Draws 4 6
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 2.13 2.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.43
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 6, 2025 Club Friendly
Aston Villa vs AS Roma
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Buendia E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramsey J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

AS Roma Compare

Avg xG / game 2.21
Avg xA / game 1.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aston Villa 35 / 100
AS Roma 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aston Villa AS Roma

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Aston Villa scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Solid form: Aston Villa remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

AS Roma's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Aston Villa VS AS Roma
2.13 Goals Scored 2.43
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.43
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 43%
50% Over 3.5 29%