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Aston Villa vs Brentford - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

Premier League Villa Park, Birmingham
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Aston Villa host Brentford in the Premier League. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Aston Villa at 1.93 goals for, 1.43 against; Brentford at 1.9 for, 1.17 against. Head-to-head, Aston Villa have won 2 to Brentford's 3, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 1, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (0.94 xG vs 2.56) point toward Brentford. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Aston Villa
35%
Draws
31%
Brentford
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Aston Villa lately — more wins on the board than Brentford.
  • Brentford are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Regular Premier League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Brentford Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Aston Villa Brentford
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 13
Draws 3 11
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.93 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Brentford
0:1
Sep 16, 2025 EFL Cup
Brentford vs Aston Villa
2:1
Aug 23, 2025 Premier League
Brentford vs Aston Villa
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Premier League
Brentford vs Aston Villa
0:1
Dec 4, 2024 Premier League
Aston Villa vs Brentford
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Aston Villa 22 / 100
Brentford 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Aston Villa Brentford

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Brentford Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aston Villa's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Brentford has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Aston Villa remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Aston Villa VS Brentford
0.88 Goals Scored 3.25
1.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Aston Villa

(Home)
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3
Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3
Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3
Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0
Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6

Brentford

(Away)
18 Sept
Brentford
3 : 0
Chelsea
15 Sept
Reading
1 : 2
Brentford
12 Sept
Bournemouth
2 : 2
Brentford
05 Sept
Brentford
1 : 1
Sunderland
30 Aug
Leeds
1 : 1
Brentford
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Manchester City 5 5 0 0 13:5 15
2 Arsenal 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
3 Brighton 5 3 1 1 16:5 10
4 Brentford 5 2 3 0 10:4 9
5 Leeds 5 2 3 0 7:3 9
6 Liverpool 5 2 3 0 7:4 9
7 Everton 5 2 3 0 6:3 9
8 Hull City 5 2 2 1 6:4 8
9 Newcastle Utd 5 2 2 1 9:9 8
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 10:12 7
11 Ipswich 5 2 0 3 7:11 6
12 Manchester United 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
13 Nottingham 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
14 Sunderland 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
15 Crystal Palace 5 1 1 3 6:11 4
16 Aston Villa 5 1 1 3 4:9 4
17 Bournemouth 5 0 3 2 6:8 3
18 Coventry 5 1 0 4 1:10 3
19 Fulham 5 0 2 3 5:8 2
20 Tottenham 5 0 2 3 2:8 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)