Sport Picks
Aston Villa vs Salzburg
Europe
Europa League 2025/2026 Villa Park, Birmingham 
Match Events
33'
33'
Konate K.
Assist: Baidoo E.
35'
35'
Trummer T.
35'
35'
Sub
Watkins O. In: Rogers M.
Out: Watkins O.
AI Match Summary
Aston Villa in this Europa League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aston Villa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
35%
20%
45%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Salzburg
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Salzburg lately — more wins on the board than Aston Villa.
- Salzburg are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%
Salzburg Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Aston Villa | Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 18 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 12 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2 | 2.39 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.4 | 0.96 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jan 29, 2026 Europa League
Aston Villa vs Salzburg
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Aston Villa Compare
Top Goalscorer Rogers M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Mings T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Salzburg Compare
Top Goalscorer Konate K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Yeo M. K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Aston Villa 10 / 100
Salzburg 75 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Aston Villa Salzburg
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Salzburg Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Aston Villa's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Games between these two average 5.00 goals.
Salzburg has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.
Recent resilience: Aston Villa stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Aston Villa VS Salzburg
1.13 Goals Scored 2.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Aston Villa
(Home) 19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3 Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3 Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3 Aston Villa
05 Sept
Hull City
0 : 0 Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2 Nottingham
31 Aug
Aston Villa
0 : 1 Arsenal
28 Jul
Aston Villa
2 : 4 Real Sociedad
15 May
Aston Villa
4 : 2 Liverpool
07 May
Aston Villa
4 : 0 Nottingham
Page 1 of 3
Salzburg
(Away) 20 Sept
Salzburg
3 : 0 Sturm Graz
17 Sept
Levski Sofia
0 : 1 Salzburg
11 Sept
Ried
1 : 1 Salzburg
06 Sept
St. Polten
0 : 3 Salzburg
02 Sept
Salzburg
5 : 1 Rapid Vienna
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
Levski Sofia
0 : 1 Salzburg
11 Sept
Ried
1 : 1 Salzburg
06 Sept
St. Polten
0 : 3 Salzburg
20 Aug
Mjallby
0 : 1 Salzburg
16 Aug
Tirol
0 : 3 Salzburg
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18:5 | 21 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14:6 | 21 |
| 3 | Midtjylland | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 19 |
| 4 | Betis | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Porto | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 17 |
| 6 | Braga | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 17 |
| 7 | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10:4 | 17 |
| 8 | AS Roma | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 16 |
| 9 | Genk | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 16 |
| 10 | Bologna | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:9 | 15 |
| 12 | Ferencvaros | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:11 | 15 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 14 |
| 14 | Plzen | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8:3 | 14 |
| 15 | Crvena zvezda | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 14 |
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:11 | 13 |
| 17 | PAOK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17:14 | 12 |
| 18 | Lille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12:9 | 12 |
| 19 | Fenerbahce | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 20 | Panathinaikos | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 12 |
| 21 | Celtic | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:15 | 11 |
| 22 | Ludogorets | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | 10 |
| 23 | Din. Zagreb | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | 10 |
| 24 | Brann | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 25 | Young Boys | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:16 | 9 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5:11 | 7 |
| 27 | FCSB | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | 7 |
| 28 | G.A. Eagles | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | 7 |
| 29 | Feyenoord | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11:15 | 6 |
| 30 | Basel | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 31 | Salzburg | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 32 | Rangers | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:14 | 4 |
| 33 | Nice | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7:15 | 3 |
| 34 | Utrecht | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:15 | 1 |
| 35 | Malmo FF | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:15 | 1 |
| 36 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2:22 | 1 |
Promotion - Europa League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
