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Atalanta vs Bologna - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Our Tip

Match Events

55'
Sub
De Ketelaere C. In: Zalewski N.
Out: De Ketelaere C.
56'
Sub
Raspadori G. In: Elmas E.
Out: Raspadori G.
60'
Sub
Odgaard J. In: Orsolini R.
Out: Odgaard J.

AI Match Summary

The Serie A game between Atalanta and Bologna finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atalanta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Atalanta
20%
Draws
20%
Bologna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atalanta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bologna come out ahead of Atalanta on wins alone.
  • Atalanta are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Atalanta Clean Sheet 20%
Bologna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atalanta Bologna
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.36 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Serie A
Atalanta vs Bologna
1:0
May 17, 2026 Serie A
Atalanta vs Bologna
0:1
Jan 7, 2026 Serie A
Bologna vs Atalanta
0:2
Apr 13, 2025 Serie A
Atalanta vs Bologna
2:0
Feb 4, 2025 Coppa Italia
Atalanta vs Bologna
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atalanta Compare

Top Goalscorer Samardzic L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Bologna Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atalanta 42 / 100
Bologna 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atalanta Bologna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atalanta found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Bologna has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Bologna lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Atalanta VS Bologna
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atalanta

(Home)
20 Sept
Juventus
2 : 0
Atalanta
12 Sept
Atalanta
1 : 2
Cagliari
05 Sept
AS Roma
2 : 1
Atalanta
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
27 Aug
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0 : 1
Atalanta
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Bologna

(Away)
19 Sept
Bologna
1 : 1
Torino
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0
Bologna
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2
Sassuolo
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1
Lazio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)