Sport Picks

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Atenas vs Bella Vista

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atenas play Bella Vista in the Segunda Division 2023. Atenas are favorites here. Recently, Atenas averaged 1.5 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Bella Vista averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Atenas won 3, Bella Vista won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 29, 2023 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Atenas and 1.19 for Bella Vista. This points to a Atenas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Atenas
20%
Draws
21%
Bella Vista
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atenas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

87% / Very High Confidence
  • Atenas picked up more points recently compared to Bella Vista.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Over 3.5 Goals 24%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%
Atenas Clean Sheet 20%
Bella Vista Clean Sheet 15%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atenas Bella Vista
Matches Played 38 30
Wins 20 7
Draws 8 4
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.5 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.5

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2023 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Atenas
1:1
Jul 22, 2023 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Bella Vista
1:0
Aug 23, 2019 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Bella Vista
3:0
May 18, 2019 Segunda Division
Bella Vista vs Atenas
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atenas Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Bella Vista Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atenas 57 / 100
Bella Vista 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atenas Bella Vista

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atenas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Atenas & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.6%
1.96
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.6%
2.94
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atenas attacking → ← attacking Bella Vista

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atenas scored in 87% of their last 38 games.

Bella Vista let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Atenas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Bella Vista lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

68 Points in last 5 25
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00