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Atenas vs Maldonado

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Toloza N.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda Division 2025 game between Atenas and Maldonado finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maldonado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atenas
40%
Draws
29%
Maldonado
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Maldonado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Segunda Division 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Atenas Clean Sheet 68%
Maldonado Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atenas Maldonado
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 16
Draws 6 7
Losses 10 6
Goals Scored 1.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Maldonado
0:1
Nov 22, 2025 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
0:1
Jun 4, 2025 Segunda Division
Atenas vs Maldonado
1:1
Aug 31, 2019 Segunda Division
Maldonado vs Atenas
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atenas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Maldonado Compare

Top Goalscorer Toloza N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atenas 42 / 100
Maldonado 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atenas Maldonado

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atenas's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Maldonado has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Atenas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atenas VS Maldonado
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Atenas3
Tacuarembo3
Colon1
Maldonado2
Final
Atenas0
Maldonado1