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Athletic Club Boise vs Sacramento Republic

USA USA

USL Cup Athletic Club Boise Soccer Stadium (Expo Idaho)
Sun, Jul 12, 2026
1 - 0
01:30 AM
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Moon N.
Assist: Amang T.
27'
Kaye M.

AI Match Summary

Athletic Club Boise host Sacramento Republic in the USL Cup. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Athletic Club Boise at 1.5 goals for, 2.25 against; Sacramento Republic at 0.75 for, 0.88 against. Past meetings favor Athletic Club Boise slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 12, 2025, ending 0-1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.50, favoring Athletic Club Boise. Athletic Club Boise in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Athletic Club Boise
39%
Draws
30%
Sacramento Republic
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Athletic Club Boise haven't matched Sacramento Republic's recent run of results.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Cup games in USL Cup usually bring a different intensity than the league.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Athletic Club Boise Clean Sheet 16%
Sacramento Republic Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athletic Club Boise Sacramento Republic
Matches Played 19 27
Wins 9 11
Draws 3 5
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 2.25 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2025 USL Cup
Athletic Club Boise vs Sacramento Republic
0-1
Apr 12, 2025 USL Cup
Sacramento Republic vs Athletic Club Boise
2-2
Mar 12, 2025 USL Cup
Athletic Club Boise vs Sacramento Republic
2-1
Feb 12, 2025 USL Cup
Sacramento Republic vs Athletic Club Boise
2-0
Jan 12, 2025 USL Cup
Athletic Club Boise vs Sacramento Republic
2-1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Athletic Club Boise Compare

Top Goalscorer Moon N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sacramento Republic Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athletic Club Boise 31 / 100
Sacramento Republic 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athletic Club Boise Sacramento Republic

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Athletic Club Boise scored in 89% of their last 19 games.

Sacramento Republic let in goals in 67% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Athletic Club Boise went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Athletic Club Boise VS Sacramento Republic
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Spokane Velocity43016:69
2Sacramento Republic33007:18
3Athletic Club Boise32017:65
4Oakland Roots41034:64
5Monterey Bay31026:73
6Las Vegas Lights30031:51
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Colorado Springs33007:19
2El Paso Locomotive32015:36
3New Mexico32016:56
4AV Alta FC31023:53
5Phoenix Rising31022:63
6Orange County SC30033:60
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1San Antonio FC33004:18
2Birmingham Legion32015:26
3One Knoxville32014:34
4FC Tulsa31023:44
5Corpus Christi FC31021:43
6Chattanooga Red Wolves30032:52
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Louisville City33009:28
2Indy Eleven43017:47
3Lexington32016:46
4Union Omaha32017:86
5Detroit City31022:35
6Fort Wayne30035:101
7Forward Madison30032:70
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hartford Athletic32016:27
2Brooklyn FC32018:36
3Rhode Island32015:25
4Portland Hearts of Pine31025:94
5New York Cosmos31024:93
6Westchester SC31025:82
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Charleston33007:18
2Charlotte Independence33005:28
3Pittsburgh Riverhounds31024:35
4Loudoun United31024:53
5Greenville Triumph31023:53
6Richmond Kickers30031:80
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Tampa Bay33008:19
2Miami FC32016:56
3Sporting Jax41033:54
4Sarasota Paradise31022:43
5FC Naples31023:72