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Athletic Palermo vs Paterno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Romano A.
53' Event
Faccetti P.
55' Event
Mazzotta A.

AI Match Summary

Athletic Palermo in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Athletic Palermo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Athletic Palermo
15%
Draws
12%
Paterno
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Athletic Palermo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Paterno haven't matched Athletic Palermo's recent run of results.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Athletic Palermo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Athletic Palermo Clean Sheet 68%
Paterno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Athletic Palermo Paterno
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 16 4
Draws 3 5
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 1.73 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.43 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Athletic Palermo vs Paterno
4:2
Nov 2, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs Athletic Palermo
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Athletic Palermo Compare

Top Goalscorer Faccetti P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mazzotta A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Paterno Compare

Top Goalscorer Romano A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Athletic Palermo 77 / 100
Paterno 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Athletic Palermo Paterno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Athletic Palermo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Athletic Palermo scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Paterno has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 5.50 goals when they meet.

Paterno's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Athletic Palermo VS Paterno
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Athletic Palermo

(Home)
10 May
Reggina
1 : 0
Athletic Palermo
03 May
USD Ragusa
1 : 2
Athletic Palermo
26 Apr
Athletic Palermo
1 : 3
A.C. Savoia
19 Apr
Vibonese
2 : 3
Athletic Palermo
12 Apr
Athletic Palermo
0 : 3
Castrumfavara
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Paterno

(Away)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)