Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna

Spain Spain

LaLiga Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
David J.
50'
Lookman A.
54' Event
Lee Kang-In
Assist: David J.

AI Match Summary

The LaLiga game between Atl. Madrid and Osasuna finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atl. Madrid.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Atl. Madrid
15%
Draws
34%
Osasuna
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atl. Madrid

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Atl. Madrid carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Atl. Madrid's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Atl. Madrid have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Atl. Madrid Clean Sheet 68%
Osasuna Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Madrid Osasuna
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 2 7
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.87 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna
4:0
May 12, 2026 LaLiga
Osasuna vs Atl. Madrid
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna
1:0
May 15, 2025 LaLiga
Osasuna vs Atl. Madrid
2:0
Jan 12, 2025 LaLiga
Atl. Madrid vs Osasuna
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Madrid Compare

Top Goalscorer David J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lee Kang-In
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Osasuna Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Madrid 95 / 100
Osasuna 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Madrid Osasuna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Atl. Madrid Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atl. Madrid found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

Osasuna let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Atl. Madrid has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Madrid VS Osasuna
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Madrid

(Home)
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0
Osasuna
13 Sept
Real Sociedad
0 : 3
Atl. Madrid
09 Sept
Liverpool
2 : 1
Atl. Madrid
05 Sept
Ath Bilbao
3 : 0
Atl. Madrid
29 Aug
Sevilla
1 : 3
Atl. Madrid
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Osasuna

(Away)
16 Sept
Atl. Madrid
4 : 0
Osasuna
12 Sept
Osasuna
0 : 2
Espanyol
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2
Osasuna
31 Aug
Osasuna
1 : 0
Getafe
27 Aug
Celta Vigo
1 : 2
Osasuna
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barcelona 6 6 0 0 28:6 18
2 Real Madrid 6 5 0 1 17:6 15
3 Betis 6 5 0 1 8:6 15
4 Atl. Madrid 6 4 1 1 14:6 13
5 Sevilla 6 4 1 1 9:6 13
6 Alaves 6 3 1 2 11:6 10
7 Dep. A Coruna 6 2 3 1 9:7 9
8 Espanyol 6 2 1 3 9:7 7
9 Ath Bilbao 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Racing Santander 6 2 1 3 11:16 7
11 Rayo Vallecano 6 2 1 3 10:15 7
12 Real Sociedad 6 2 1 3 6:11 7
13 Osasuna 6 2 1 3 5:12 7
14 Villarreal 6 1 2 3 10:11 5
15 Levante 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
16 Getafe 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
17 Celta Vigo 6 0 4 2 3:6 4
18 Valencia 6 1 1 4 2:10 4
19 Malaga 6 0 3 3 3:11 3
20 Elche 6 0 2 4 8:16 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)