Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atl. Madrid W vs Athletic Bilbao W

Spain Spain

Copa de la Reina Women 2025/2026 Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares, Madrid
Atl. Madrid W Logo

Atl. Madrid W

4 - 1
FT
Athletic Bilbao W Logo

Athletic Bilbao W

Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Jensen S.
Assist: Sarriegi A.
37' Event
Sarriegi A.
Assist: Costa L.
45'
Iannuzzi F.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Atl. Madrid W advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Atl. Madrid W
20%
Draws
38%
Athletic Bilbao W
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atl. Madrid W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Atl. Madrid W carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Atl. Madrid W have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Atl. Madrid W, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Atl. Madrid W Clean Sheet 16%
Athletic Bilbao W Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Madrid W Athletic Bilbao W
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 15 14
Draws 4 5
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.45 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 0.76 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Liga F Women
Athletic Bilbao W vs Atl. Madrid W
3:2
Mar 29, 2026 Liga F Women
Athletic Bilbao W vs Atl. Madrid W
1:2
Feb 4, 2026 Copa de la Reina Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Athletic Bilbao W
4:1
Oct 4, 2025 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Athletic Bilbao W
1:1
May 4, 2025 Liga F Women
Atl. Madrid W vs Athletic Bilbao W
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Madrid W Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarriegi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Jensen S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Athletic Bilbao W Compare

Top Goalscorer Azkona A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Madrid W 31 / 100
Athletic Bilbao W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Madrid W Athletic Bilbao W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Athletic Bilbao W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Atl. Madrid W's goal record stands at 74% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Athletic Bilbao W let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Atl. Madrid W has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Madrid W VS Athletic Bilbao W
0.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
38% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Madrid W

(Home)
03 Oct
Dep. A Coruna W
1 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
27 Sept
Athletic Bilbao W
3 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
19 Sept
Atl. Madrid W
1 : 0
Logrono W
12 Sept
Barcelona W
4 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
06 Sept
Atl. Madrid W
1 : 0
Alaves W
Page 1 of 7

Athletic Bilbao W

(Away)
03 Oct
Madrid CFF W
2 : 2
Athletic Bilbao W
27 Sept
Athletic Bilbao W
3 : 2
Atl. Madrid W
20 Sept
Eibar W
1 : 0
Athletic Bilbao W
12 Sept
Athletic Bilbao W
2 : 2
Espanyol W
06 Sept
Logrono W
0 : 1
Athletic Bilbao W
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Guiniguada Apolinario W 1
Dep. A Coruna W 3
TBD -
Real Sociedad W -
CA Osasuna W 0
Badalona W 3
TBD -
Granada CF W -
Valencia W 1
Espanyol W 2
TBD -
Real Madrid W -
Alaves W 4
Levante W 0
TBD -
Barcelona W -
Sport Extremadura CD W 1
Alhama W 2
TBD -
Atl. Madrid W -
CE Europa W 2
Logrono W 1
TBD -
Athletic Bilbao W -
Huelva W 1
Madrid CFF W 7
TBD -
Eibar W -
Real Oviedo W 2
Sevilla W 3
TBD -
Costa Adeje Tenerife W -
1/8-finals
Dep. A Coruna W 1
Real Sociedad W 4
Badalona W 1
Granada CF W 0
Espanyol W 0
Real Madrid W 4
Alaves W 1
Barcelona W 6
Alhama W 1
Atl. Madrid W 2
CE Europa W 0
Athletic Bilbao W 3
Madrid CFF W 3
Eibar W 2
Sevilla W 1
Costa Adeje Tenerife W 2
Quarter-finals
Real Sociedad W 0
Badalona W 1
Real Madrid W 0
Barcelona W 4
Atl. Madrid W 4
Athletic Bilbao W 1
Madrid CFF W 0
Costa Adeje Tenerife W 1
Semi-finals
Badalona W 1
Barcelona W 4
Atl. Madrid W 2
Costa Adeje Tenerife W 0
Final
Barcelona W 3
Atl. Madrid W 1