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Atl. Nacional vs Chapecoense-SC Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Club Friendly Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Yago Felipe
23' Event
Benitez E.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Atl. Nacional and Chapecoense-SC finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Atl. Nacional
35%
Draws
25%
Chapecoense-SC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Atl. Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Atl. Nacional come out ahead of Chapecoense-SC on wins alone.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Atl. Nacional taking it.
  • Regular Club Friendly form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Atl. Nacional Clean Sheet 20%
Chapecoense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atl. Nacional Chapecoense-SC
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 18 8
Draws 3 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.89 1.26
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Club Friendly
Atl. Nacional vs Chapecoense-SC
1:1
May 11, 2017 Recopa Sudamericana
Atl. Nacional vs Chapecoense-SC
4:1
Apr 4, 2017 Recopa Sudamericana
Chapecoense-SC vs Atl. Nacional
2:1
Dec 7, 2016 Copa Sudamericana
Chapecoense-SC vs Atl. Nacional
0:0
Nov 30, 2016 Copa Sudamericana
Atl. Nacional vs Chapecoense-SC
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atl. Nacional Compare

Top Goalscorer Benitez E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Chapecoense-SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Yago Felipe
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atl. Nacional 42 / 100
Chapecoense-SC 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atl. Nacional Chapecoense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapecoense-SC has conceded goals in 89% of their last 27 outings.

Atl. Nacional scored in 78% of their last 27 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Atl. Nacional went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atl. Nacional VS Chapecoense-SC
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atl. Nacional

(Home)
01 Oct
Atl. Nacional
3 : 1
Junior
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
25 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Millonarios
21 Sept
Llaneros
2 : 0
Atl. Nacional
17 Sept
Inter Bogotá
2 : 3
Atl. Nacional
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Chapecoense-SC

(Away)
26 Sept
Atl. Nacional
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
19 Sept
Atletico-MG
1 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
12 Sept
Chapecoense-SC
1 : 2
Internacional
06 Sept
Corinthians
1 : 2
Chapecoense-SC
30 Aug
Gremio
3 : 1
Chapecoense-SC
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