Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union

USA USA

MLS Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Latte Lath E.
Assist: Almiron M.
41'
Baez E.
43' Event
Iloski M.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between Atlanta United and Philadelphia Union finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atlanta United.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Atlanta United
20%
Draws
38%
Philadelphia Union
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Atlanta United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Philadelphia Union come out ahead of Atlanta United on wins alone.
  • Model gives Atlanta United a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Atlanta United Clean Sheet 17%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlanta United Philadelphia Union
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1.63 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.25 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2026 MLS
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
3:1
May 17, 2025 MLS
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
0:1
Apr 19, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
3:0
Sep 28, 2024 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
1:1
Apr 14, 2024 MLS
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atlanta United Compare

Top Goalscorer Latte Lath E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jacob T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Anello A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlanta United 41 / 100
Philadelphia Union 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlanta United Philadelphia Union

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlanta United found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Philadelphia Union conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Philadelphia Union's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Atlanta United VS Philadelphia Union
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307