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Atlantas vs FC Stumbras

Lithuania Lithuania

A Lyga 2019 Klaipedosmiesto Centrinis
Atlantas Logo

Atlantas

Sat, Sep 21, 2019
3 - 0
04:00 PM
FC Stumbras Logo

FC Stumbras

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Atlantas play FC Stumbras in the A Lyga 2019. It looks like a close match. Recently, Atlantas averaged 0.84 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. FC Stumbras averaged 0.47 goals scored and 2.13 conceded. In past meetings, Atlantas won 2, FC Stumbras won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Sep 21, 2019 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.00 for Atlantas and 1.25 for FC Stumbras. This points to a Atlantas double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Atlantas
15%
Draws
38%
FC Stumbras
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Atlantas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Atlantas picked up more points recently compared to FC Stumbras.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.00 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 64%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 64%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27%
Atlantas Clean Sheet 19%
FC Stumbras Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlantas FC Stumbras
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 5
Draws 4 3
Losses 21 22
Goals Scored 0.84 0.47
Goals Conceded 2.39 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 21, 2019 TOPLYGA
Atlantas vs FC Stumbras
3:0
Jul 6, 2019 TOPLYGA
FC Stumbras vs Atlantas
0:3
May 12, 2019 TOPLYGA
Atlantas vs FC Stumbras
0:0
Mar 16, 2019 TOPLYGA
FC Stumbras vs Atlantas
2:0
Oct 28, 2018 TOPLYGA
FC Stumbras vs Atlantas
6:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlantas 46 / 100
FC Stumbras 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlantas FC Stumbras

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Atlantas or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.1%
1.72
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Atlantas attacking → ← attacking FC Stumbras

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atlantas scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

FC Stumbras let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Atlantas went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

FC Stumbras lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 18
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Suduva28250374:1575
2Zalgiris28212567:2265
3Riteriai28137844:2946
4FK Kauno Zalgiris281351048:3944
5FK Panevezys28871341:5331
6Atlantas28751626:5326
7Palanga28612129:7019
8FC Stumbras28432112:6015