Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Atlas vs Leones Negros

World World

Club Friendly 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atlas in this Club Friendly 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atlas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Atlas
40%
Draws
29%
Leones Negros
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atlas lately — more wins on the board than Leones Negros.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Atlas have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Atlas Clean Sheet 20%
Leones Negros Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atlas Leones Negros
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 0.5 0.86
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 27, 2025 Club Friendly
Atlas vs Leones Negros
3:1
Jun 24, 2023 Club Friendly
Atlas vs Leones Negros
4:0
Feb 6, 2019 Copa Mexico
Leones Negros vs Atlas
2:4
Jan 23, 2019 Copa Mexico
Atlas vs Leones Negros
1:2
Aug 6, 2015 Copa Mexico
Atlas vs Leones Negros
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atlas 32 / 100
Leones Negros 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atlas Leones Negros

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Atlas found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Leones Negros conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Leones Negros lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atlas VS Leones Negros
0.5 Goals Scored 0.86
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.14
25% Over 1.5 71%
13% Over 2.5 43%
13% Over 3.5 14%