Sport Picks
Atletico Ascoli vs Castelfidardo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 
Match Events
15'
15'
Maio F.
(Penalty)
21'
21'
Mazzarani F.
85'
85'
Sbrissa G.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Atletico Ascoli and Castelfidardo finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Ascoli.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
30%
16%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico Ascoli
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Atletico Ascoli carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Atletico Ascoli's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Atletico Ascoli here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 68%
Castelfidardo Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico Ascoli | Castelfidardo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 6 |
| Draws | 11 | 5 |
| Losses | 7 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.58 | 1.10 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Castelfidardo
3:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Atletico Ascoli
1:6
Mar 2, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Castelfidardo
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Castelfidardo vs Atletico Ascoli
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico Ascoli Compare
Top Goalscorer Sbrissa G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Didio L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.22
Avg xA / game 0.79
Castelfidardo Compare
Top Goalscorer Gallo M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1
Avg xA / game 0.61
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico Ascoli 95 / 100
Castelfidardo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico Ascoli Castelfidardo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico Ascoli Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Atletico Ascoli's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Castelfidardo let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.75 goals when they meet.
Atletico Ascoli has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atletico Ascoli VS Castelfidardo
1 Goals Scored 0.83
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.17
88% Over 1.5 83%
38% Over 2.5 67%
13% Over 3.5 67%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico Ascoli
(Home) 04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
27 Sept
Giulianova
4 : 2 Atletico Ascoli
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0 Sporting Trestina
16 Sept
Aquila Calcio
0 : 0 Atletico Ascoli
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Atletico Ascoli
0 : 1 Fossombrone
20 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 0 Sporting Trestina
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1 Maceratese
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Teramo
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1 Fossombrone
Page 1 of 3
Castelfidardo
(Away) 03 May
Castelfidardo
0 : 2 AS Sora
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2 Maceratese
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
12 Apr
Giulianova
0 : 0 Castelfidardo
29 Mar
Unipomezia
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
01 Mar
Ostiamare
2 : 1 Castelfidardo
15 Feb
Atletico Ascoli
3 : 1 Castelfidardo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
