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Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Maio F.
70' Event
Minicucci M.

AI Match Summary

Atletico Ascoli in this Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico Ascoli.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Atletico Ascoli
35%
Draws
41%
Maceratese
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Maceratese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Atletico Ascoli lately — more wins on the board than Maceratese.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Atletico Ascoli Clean Sheet 22%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Ascoli Maceratese
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 10
Draws 12 5
Losses 6 15
Goals Scored 1.45 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Atletico Ascoli vs Maceratese
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Atletico Ascoli
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Ascoli Compare

Top Goalscorer Maio F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Minicucci M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Maceratese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Ascoli 37 / 100
Maceratese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Ascoli Maceratese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Maceratese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maceratese let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Atletico Ascoli scored in 77% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Atletico Ascoli remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Ascoli VS Maceratese
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Ascoli

(Home)
08 Aug
Pineto
1 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
10 May
Teramo
2 : 1
Atletico Ascoli
03 May
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Teramo
26 Apr
Sammaurese
2 : 0
Atletico Ascoli
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Fossombrone
Page 1 of 7

Maceratese

(Away)
03 May
Calcio Chieti
1 : 0
Maceratese
26 Apr
Maceratese
1 : 1
Giulianova
19 Apr
Unipomezia
3 : 0
Maceratese
12 Apr
Maceratese
2 : 1
Recanatese
02 Apr
Castelfidardo
2 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)