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Atletico Astorga vs Ourense CF - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
02:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico Astorga host Ourense CF in the Segunda RFEF - Group 1. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Atletico Astorga have averaged 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded recently, against Ourense CF's 1.1 scored and 1.21 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.31) point toward Atletico Astorga. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Atletico Astorga
15%
Draws
65%
Ourense CF
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ourense CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Atletico Astorga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Atletico Astorga Clean Sheet 18%
Ourense CF Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Astorga Ourense CF
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Astorga 32 / 100
Ourense CF 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Astorga Ourense CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ourense CF Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Astorga's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ourense CF has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Atletico Astorga remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Ourense CF lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Astorga VS Ourense CF
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Astorga

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Amorebieta
26 Sept
Sestao
2 : 0
Atletico Astorga
19 Sept
Atletico Astorga
3 : 0
Marino De Luanco
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2
Atletico Astorga
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

Ourense CF

(Away)
04 Oct
Ourense CF
0 : 0
Arosa SC
26 Sept
Amorebieta
0 : 1
Ourense CF
19 Sept
Ourense CF
0 : 2
Eibar B
13 Sept
Marino De Luanco
0 : 2
Ourense CF
06 Sept
Ourense CF
2 : 1
Basconia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bergantinos 5 4 1 0 12:5 13
2 Eibar B 5 4 0 1 10:3 12
3 Alaves B 5 4 0 1 12:6 12
4 Sestao 5 4 0 1 7:3 12
5 Ourense CF 5 3 1 1 5:3 10
6 Gernika Club 5 2 2 1 12:5 8
7 Basconia 5 2 2 1 9:8 8
8 Amorebieta 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Portugalete 5 2 1 2 5:6 7
10 Real Oviedo B 5 2 1 2 8:10 7
11 Marino De Luanco 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Coruxo FC 5 1 2 2 6:7 5
13 Compostela 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
14 Gimnastic de Torrelavega 5 1 1 3 6:10 4
15 Llanera 5 1 1 3 5:10 4
16 Atletico Astorga 5 1 0 4 5:7 3
17 Arosa SC 5 0 3 2 6:13 3
18 Rayo Cantabria 5 0 1 4 3:11 1
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 (Play Out)