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Atletico Astorga vs Sarriana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

85'
Vilan D.
90' Event
Alvarez D.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Atletico Astorga and Sarriana finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico Astorga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Atletico Astorga
15%
Draws
64%
Sarriana
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sarriana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Atletico Astorga carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 64% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Atletico Astorga Clean Sheet 18%
Sarriana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Astorga Sarriana
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 6
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1.27 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Atletico Astorga vs Sarriana
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Sarriana vs Atletico Astorga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Astorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sarriana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Astorga 32 / 100
Sarriana 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Astorga Sarriana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sarriana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico Astorga scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Sarriana's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Solid form: Atletico Astorga remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Astorga VS Sarriana
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Astorga

(Home)
03 Oct
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Amorebieta
26 Sept
Sestao
2 : 0
Atletico Astorga
19 Sept
Atletico Astorga
3 : 0
Marino De Luanco
13 Sept
Basconia
3 : 2
Atletico Astorga
05 Sept
Atletico Astorga
0 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

Sarriana

(Away)
04 Oct
Somozas
2 : 1
Sarriana
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Alondras
2 : 0
Sarriana
13 Sept
Sarriana
2 : 0
Viveiro
06 Sept
Estradense
1 : 3
Sarriana
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Fabril 34 20 9 5 59:22 69
2 Real Oviedo B 34 16 10 8 50:35 58
3 Numancia 34 15 11 8 46:31 56
4 UD Ourense 34 15 10 9 40:34 55
5 Coruxo FC 34 15 7 12 46:37 52
6 Gimnastica Segoviana 34 14 9 11 37:36 51
7 Real Avila 34 14 8 12 48:52 50
8 Salamanca CF UDS 34 14 8 12 43:36 50
9 Rayo Cantabria 34 11 15 8 63:50 48
10 Bergantinos 34 13 9 12 44:37 48
11 Atletico Astorga 34 12 9 13 41:43 45
12 Marino De Luanco 34 11 12 11 31:26 45
13 Valladolid Promesas 34 12 9 13 59:58 45
14 Langreo 34 11 10 13 35:41 43
15 Sarriana 34 11 7 16 42:42 40
16 Burgos CF B 34 8 12 14 38:55 36
17 Lealtad 34 7 7 20 31:54 28
18 UD Samano 34 3 6 25 23:87 15
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)