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Atletico de Porcuna vs Melilla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 9
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Atletico de Porcuna host Melilla in the Tercera RFEF - Group 9. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Atletico de Porcuna have averaged 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded recently, against Melilla's 1.21 scored and 1.03 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.94) point toward Atletico de Porcuna. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Atletico de Porcuna
15%
Draws
57%
Melilla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Melilla

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Melilla haven't matched Atletico de Porcuna's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Melilla a 57% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Atletico de Porcuna Clean Sheet 10%
Melilla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico de Porcuna Melilla
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 10
Draws 4 8
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.24 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico de Porcuna 10 / 100
Melilla 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico de Porcuna Melilla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Melilla Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Atletico de Porcuna's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Melilla has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Atletico de Porcuna stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Difficult form: Melilla registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Atletico de Porcuna VS Melilla
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico de Porcuna

(Home)
04 Oct
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 3
Churriana de la Vega
27 Sept
Almeria B
4 : 0
Atletico de Porcuna
20 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
2 : 1
Granada CF B
12 Sept
Malaga B
6 : 1
Atletico de Porcuna
06 Sept
Atletico de Porcuna
1 : 0
Cantoria
Page 1 of 6

Melilla

(Away)
04 Oct
CD Alhaurino
1 : 2
Melilla
27 Sept
Melilla
2 : 0
Malaga Juniors
20 Sept
Torre del Mar
1 : 2
Melilla
12 Sept
Melilla
3 : 0
Huetor Vega
09 Sept
Melilla
0 : 1
Conil
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Melilla 5 5 0 0 11:3 15
2 Marbelli 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
3 Arenas Armilla 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
4 Motril 5 3 2 0 8:4 11
5 Malaga B 5 3 1 1 11:4 10
6 Almeria B 5 3 1 1 9:3 10
7 UD San Pedro 5 3 0 2 7:8 9
8 Granada CF B 5 2 1 2 7:4 7
9 Churriana de la Vega 5 2 0 3 9:9 6
10 Atletico de Porcuna 5 2 0 3 6:14 6
11 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
12 Huetor Vega 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
13 Torre del Mar 5 1 1 3 3:5 4
14 Atletico de Marbella 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
15 CD Alhaurino 5 1 1 3 3:7 4
16 Cantoria 5 0 3 2 4:7 3
17 Mancha 5 0 2 3 2:7 2
18 Malaga Juniors 5 0 0 5 3:11 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 9 (Play Offs)