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Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Peru Peru

Liga 1 Ambrosio Maco Arroyo, Piura
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
Sub
de la Cruz A. In: Tapia I.
Out: de la Cruz A.
38'
Sub
Acevedo L. In: Oncoy F.
Out: Acevedo L.
43'
Escobar J.

AI Match Summary

Atletico Grau in this Liga 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Atletico Grau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Atletico Grau
30%
Draws
37%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FBC Melgar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Atletico Grau have won more games recently than FBC Melgar.
  • Win probability leans FBC Melgar's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Atletico Grau Clean Sheet 16%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Atletico Grau FBC Melgar
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 9
Goals Scored 1.13 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.2 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2026 Liga 1
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau
0:0
Oct 5, 2025 Liga 1
Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar
0:0
May 18, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau
1:1
Sep 24, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Atletico Grau
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Atletico Grau Compare

Top Goalscorer Barreto D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

FBC Melgar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Atletico Grau 28 / 100
FBC Melgar 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Atletico Grau FBC Melgar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FBC Melgar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Atletico Grau scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

FBC Melgar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Atletico Grau stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 0.60 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Atletico Grau VS FBC Melgar
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Atletico Grau

(Home)
08 Oct
Atletico Grau
0 : 0
Los Chankas
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1
Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Atletico Grau
3 : 1
Alianza Atl.
06 Sept
Deportivo Garcilaso
4 : 2
Atletico Grau
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
FBC Melgar
Page 1 of 6

FBC Melgar

(Away)
20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
Sport Boys
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1
FBC Melgar
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0
AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0
FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1
A. Lima
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportivo Garcilaso 11 7 1 3 18:7 22
2 Sport Huancayo 11 7 1 3 17:13 22
3 Universitario de Deportes 10 6 2 2 19:16 20
4 Sporting Cristal 10 6 1 3 20:10 19
5 Alianza Atl. 10 6 1 3 20:17 19
6 Juan Pablo II 10 5 3 2 20:12 18
7 FBC Melgar 10 5 3 2 16:9 18
8 Sport Boys 10 5 3 2 14:7 18
9 Cusco 10 6 0 4 19:14 18
10 Atletico Grau 11 5 2 4 14:13 17
11 A. Lima 10 4 4 2 14:10 16
12 Cienciano 11 3 2 6 14:18 11
13 FC Cajamarca 10 3 1 6 18:24 10
14 Comerciantes Unidos 10 2 3 5 17:18 9
15 Los Chankas 11 2 3 6 11:24 9
16 Moquegua 11 1 4 6 7:19 7
17 AD Tarma 10 1 2 7 7:21 5
18 Cajamarca 10 0 2 8 11:24 2
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)