Sport Picks
Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Guaycura, La Paz 
Match Events
46'
46'
Sub
Garcia A. In: Ontiveros A.
Out: Garcia A.
57'
57'
Gonzalez J.
58'
58'
Torres E.
AI Match Summary
Alacranes de Durango in this Liga de Expansion MX matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Alacranes de Durango.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
30%
19%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Alacranes de Durango have won more games recently than Atletico La Paz.
- Model gives Atletico La Paz a 51% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 68%
Alacranes de Durango Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico La Paz | Alacranes de Durango |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 12 | 15 |
| Draws | 11 | 9 |
| Losses | 7 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.7 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.23 | 0.73 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango
0:1
Mar 1, 2023 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango
2:1
Jul 6, 2022 Liga de Expansion MX
Alacranes de Durango vs Atletico La Paz
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico La Paz Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Alacranes de Durango Compare
Top Goalscorer Cantu E.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico La Paz 95 / 100
Alacranes de Durango 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico La Paz Alacranes de Durango
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Atletico La Paz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Atletico La Paz scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Atletico La Paz remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.
Alacranes de Durango let in goals in 53% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.33 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Atletico La Paz VS Alacranes de Durango
2.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico La Paz
(Home) 25 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 3 Atletico La Paz
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
13 Sept
Leones Negros
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
28 Aug
Cancun
1 : 2 Atletico La Paz
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 1 Correcaminos
05 Sept
Atletico La Paz
3 : 0 Zacatecas Mineros
22 Aug
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
15 Aug
Atletico La Paz
2 : 0 Piratas
01 Aug
Atletico La Paz
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 3
Alacranes de Durango
(Away) 18 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
2 : 0 Cruz Azul Hidalgo
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
05 Sept
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 1 Tlaxcala
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
23 Aug
Alacranes de Durango
1 : 2 Leones Negros
Page 1 of 6
11 Sept
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
29 Aug
Correcaminos
0 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
16 Aug
Cancun
2 : 0 Alacranes de Durango
01 Aug
Atletico La Paz
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
25 Jul
Tepatitlan de Morelos
0 : 1 Alacranes de Durango
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Atletico Morelia | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 20:11 | 21 |
| 2 | Atletico La Paz | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 23:11 | 20 |
| 3 | Leones Negros | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 21:13 | 20 |
| 4 | Zacatecas Mineros | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21:15 | 17 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 24:20 | 16 |
| 6 | Piratas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 7 | Correcaminos | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 19:18 | 15 |
| 8 | Cancun | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 9 | Tapatio | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 17:14 | 14 |
| 10 | Alacranes de Durango | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7:9 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 17:14 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18:22 | 11 |
| 13 | Jaiba Brava | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 8:18 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 16 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5:28 | 3 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)
