Sport Picks
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexico
Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Guaycura, La Paz 
Match Events
14'
14'
Sub
Alvarez K. In: Ayala D.
Out: Alvarez K.
40'
40'
Barreda I.
45'
45'
Alaffita Garcia E. J.
AI Match Summary
The Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 game between Atletico La Paz and Alebrijes de Oaxaca finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Atletico La Paz.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Atletico La Paz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Atletico La Paz come out ahead of Alebrijes de Oaxaca on wins alone.
- Atletico La Paz are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Atletico La Paz Clean Sheet 20%
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Atletico La Paz | Alebrijes de Oaxaca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 9 | 7 |
| Draws | 13 | 9 |
| Losses | 8 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 2.38 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 2.38 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4:0
Oct 11, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz
1:1
Apr 5, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Atletico La Paz
2:2
Oct 19, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2:1
Apr 21, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Atletico La Paz vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Atletico La Paz Compare
Top Goalscorer Alaffita Garcia E. J.
1 Goals Assists Leader Alvarez D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Compare
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Atletico La Paz 40 / 100
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Atletico La Paz Alebrijes de Oaxaca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LAP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Atletico La Paz scored in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 3.60 goals.
Atletico La Paz has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Atletico La Paz VS Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Atletico La Paz
(Home) 01 Jul
Juarez
2 : 2 Atletico La Paz
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
23 Apr
Jaiba Brava
2 : 0 Atletico La Paz
17 Apr
Atlante
1 : 1 Atletico La Paz
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
Page 1 of 6
26 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
11 Apr
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Tepatitlan de Morelos
28 Mar
Atletico La Paz
1 : 1 Jaiba Brava
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
08 Mar
Atletico La Paz
2 : 0 Tlaxcala
Page 1 of 3
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
(Away) 18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
11 Apr
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 2 Jaiba Brava
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
28 Mar
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1 : 1 Leones Negros
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Correcaminos
1 : 3 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
04 Apr
Tepatitlan de Morelos
2 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Mar
Atletico La Paz
4 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
08 Mar
Irapuato
6 : 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
21 Feb
Atlante
1 : 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tepatitlan de Morelos | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 |
| 2 | Cancun | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24:17 | 25 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Morelia | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 18:12 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico La Paz | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 22:12 | 22 |
| 5 | Jaiba Brava | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 21 |
| 6 | Zacatecas Mineros | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Tapatio | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 28:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Atlante | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 21:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Irapuato | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 27:24 | 20 |
| 10 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16:17 | 20 |
| 11 | Venados FC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25:25 | 16 |
| 12 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 20:29 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados de Sinaloa | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17:28 | 13 |
| 14 | Correcaminos | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14:27 | 12 |
| 15 | Leones Negros | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 15:25 | 11 |
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)